859
FXUS65 KVEF 011802
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1102 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures continue through
  the weekend and into the start of next week.

* Potential for a monsoonal moisture surge midweek, with above-
  normal temperatures mid-to-late week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Conditions remain largely dry across the forecast area, with the
persistent, dry southwesterly flow aloft. The forecast monsoonal
moisture push across Arizona has diminished considerably from
forecast runs several days ago, though the ECMWF and GFS ensemble
means continue to show 0.50 to 0.75" of PWAT climb up the Colorado
River Valley today. This moisture will elevate afternoon relative
humidities into the teens, but will struggle to produce much in the
way of cloud cover or precipitation. Similarly, latest NBM runs show
negligible (sub-10%) PoPs across eastern Mohave County, though
cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm formed
off of outflow boundaries from central Arizona. Conditions continue
to dry out through the weekend, with sunny skies and seasonal
temperatures expected heading into the next work week.

There is continued inter-model agreement in a trough pushing into
the Pacific Northwest / Northern California Monday and Tuesday,
while the monsoonal ridge over the southern CONUS / northern Mexico
continues to build. By midweek, this trough will have deamplified
the ridge over the Desert Southwest, shifting the center of the
high further east. This will allow moisture to once again creep up
the Colorado River Valley, with forecast ECMWF ensemble PWATs
peaking on Wednesday from Laughlin / Bullhead City to Las Vegas to
0.75 to 1.00". The NBM is not currently on board with this
solution, as NBM forecast temperatures continue to climb above-
normal mid-to-late week and NBM PoPs remain slight (10-20%) -
isolated to eastern Mohave County. Regardless, all models agree
that the monsoonal high will once again retrograde westward,
resulting in climbing heights and increasing temperatures.
HeatRisk in southern Mohave County increases to "Major" and
"Extreme" Thursday and Friday. Will continue to assess the
magnitude of the moisture resurgence midweek and the need for
heat-related headlines late-week as we move through the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
south winds are expected this afternoon, with gusts 20-25KT likely
at all valley terminals. Typical overnight southwest winds at 8KT or
less will return after sunset. AFter a period of light winds
Saturday morning, breezy south winds return Saturday afternoon.
Winds on Saturday will be similar or slightly lighter than today.
Temperatures will exceed 100F between 20z and 03z, with a high
around 105F today and tomorrow under clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to
southwesterly breezes will set up across the region this afternoon.
Gusts to 15-25KT are likely in most areas this afternoon. Winds
subside after sunset except in the KDAG area where they`ll remain
elevated into the night. Breezy south to southwesterly winds will
return late Saturday morning or afternoon with speeds.gusts similar
to or slightly lower than today. VFR conditions and mostly clear
skies, with just a few shallow afternoon cumulus over northern Inyo,
Esmeralda, and northern Mohave counties.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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