104
FXUS65 KVEF 111712
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1012 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms continue a flood threat for mainly
  Lincoln and Mohave counties today.

* Moisture and precipitation chances get flushed out on Sunday as a
  trough swings through, leaving below-normal temperatures in its
  wake.

* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return mid-week as a more
  traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.
Moisture from Priscilla will continues to slowly shift east today as
deep Pacific trough pushes into the western US bringing in a drier
southwest flow. Main band of light to moderate showers is currently
extending across west central Arizona with the back edge expected to
exit Mohave County before sunrise today. We will still be dealing
with ample amounts of moisture with PWats still about 200-250% of
normal across Mohave County with lesser amounts extending westward.
With the hi-res models continuing to indicate moderate instability,
the threat of thunderstorms will still exist this afternoon over
mainly Mohave and Lincoln counties, with lesser chances of Clark and
eastern San Bernardino counties. Decided to cancel the Flood Watch
for southeast San Bernardino County and the Spring Mountains as the
threat of flooding has shifted east. Thunderstorms will still be
possible in these areas this afternoon, but the overall coverage
will be much less.

By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have swung through the
area, scouring out moisture and leaving precipitation chances below
10% areawide. The drier airmass in its wake will also be notably
cooler, with highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than Saturday.
These below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist throughout
next week, especially with another trough set to dig along the
Pacific Coast. This system brings precipitation chances (20-50%) to
the western half of our CWA, with chances increasing as you head
west. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of another tropical
system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of precipitation is
expected across central and southern Arizona.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The
chance for showers and thunderstorms near the terminals this
afternoon is 10% or less, with the main convective impacts focused
on western routes through Arizona. By Sunday, precipitation is not
expected across the region. Light southeast winds will shift
southwest and increase early this afternoon. Wind gusts over 20KT
are likely (80%+ chance) this afternoon at all the valley terminals,
with a a low chance (30%) or gusts over 30KT, mainly between 20Z-23Z
today. Southwest winds will stop gusting for a period around 03Z but
speeds will remain elevated at about 10KT. Eventually winds will
become northerly tonight, likely between 09Z-12Z, with gusts to 20KT
returning as winds change direction. North winds will continue
through Sunday morning but slowly diminish with gusts ending after
sunrise then speeds dropping under 8KT and becoming northeast Sunday
afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across western Arizona this afternoon
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible should any storms move
directly over TAF sites this afternoon, with the main TAFs of
concern being EED and IFP. Gusty south to southwest winds are
expected across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona with
widespread gusts 20-30KT expected. Meanwhile westerly winds across
the western Mojave Desert will gust 25-30KT at times through this
evening. A front will move through the region from northwest to
southeast through the period, with gusty northerly to northwesterly
in the Owens Valley and across Nye and Esmeralda Counties this
afternoon transitioning into Clark County and the Colorado River
Valley tonight or early Sunday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Woods
AVIATION...Nickerson

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