342
FXUS65 KVEF 041135
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
435 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy and dry conditions will promote high fire spread
  potential today and tonight.

* Areas of haze and smoke from distant wildfires will spread
  across much of Southern Nevada and California today through the
  weekend.

* Potential for a significant heat wave is increasing from the
  middle of next week into next weekend. This looks to be the
  hottest weather we have seen since last summer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wildfire danger will be heightened today due to the combination
of hot, dry and breezy weather, and July 4th activities. See the
Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

Ongoing wildfires across Southern California, most notably the
Madre fire burning north of Santa Maria, will continue to generate
smoke and haze. As southwesterly winds overspread the region
today into the weekend, expect at least patchy smoke and
widespread haze to affect much of adjacent Southern California and
Southern Nevada. This combined with July 4th festivities may
result in poor air quality today through the weekend. Follow the
guidance of local air quality agencies if you have outdoor plans
over the holiday weekend.

As we get into next week, ensembles depict a cutoff low off of
the Southern California coast will gradually retrograde, allowing
a powerful upper ridge of high pressure to build in across the
Four Corners region. This feature will slowly build westward,
becoming positioned over Southern California, Nevada and western
Arizona. Long-range ensembles are rather confident on this
dominant ridge having a prolonged presence across the Desert
Southwest. As such, the potential for a significant multi-day heat
event are on the rise. Heat Risk will climb daily, with
widespread Major to Extreme Heat Risk evident Wednesday and
Thursday of next week, likely continuing through the following
weekend. We will have to monitor trends closely as this feature
looks to bring the hottest weather we have seen since last summer.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Southerly to southwesterly winds are expected through
the forecast period, with winds increasing and becoming gusty by
mid morning. Gusts are expected to be around 20- 25KT, though a
few stronger gusts are possible during peak heating this afternoon
before diminishing during the evening. Winds then remain elevated
overnight, with sustained speeds around 10-15KT. Late this
evening, obscurations due to firework smoke are expected, though
prevailing winds should help keep smoke from settling into the
Valley. VFR conditions otherwise prevail with haze possible aloft
due to wildfire smoke from California, and temperatures briefly
reaching 100 degrees between 22Z-00Z


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly to
southwesterly winds will develop areawide by late this morning,
with gusts to 20-30KT expected thereafter through this evening.
Winds will gradually diminish, though will remain elevated with
sustained speeds around 10-15KT and intermittent gusts possible
overnight across the Las Vegas Valley and Western Mojave Desert,
in particular. Localized obscurations due to firework smoke are
expected late this evening, but otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail with increasing haze aloft due to lofted wildfire smoke
from southern California.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of hot and dry weather with increasing
southwesterly breezes will lead to high fire spread potential
today into early tonight. This combined with dry vegetation and
July 4th activities will lead to an increased risk of wildfires.
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for much of Southern Nevada
into western Arizona beginning late this morning and lasting into
tonight. Hot and dry conditions will persist into the weekend and
beyond, but winds will generally be on a downward trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Austin
AVIATION...Phillipson

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