084
FXUS65 KVEF 101928
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms continue a flash flood threat through
  Saturday, mainly for areas along and east of the Interstate 15
  corridor.

* Moisture and precipitation chances get flushed out on Sunday as a
  trough swings through, leaving below-normal temperatures in its
  wake.

* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return mid-week as a more
  traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Scattered showers and storms continue today, largely confined to San
Bernardino, Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties. Like yesterday,
relatively strong flow aloft will keep precipitation moving off to
the northeast, so the ability for convection to train over the same
area is going to dictate the flash flood threat. This morning`s
guidance suggests that the greatest potential for training storms is
broadly along the I-15 corridor. Satellite imagery shows widespread
clouds southeast of I-15, and notable breaks in the cloud cover
along and northwest of the interstate. These breaks should allow for
instability to develop along the corridor this afternoon, and the
differential heating boundary may act as a subtle forcing mechanism
for storms. Farther southeast, abundant clouds will limit
instability and likely keep precipitation in more of a stratiform
mode, thus tempering the flash flood threat. Storms should begin to
taper off after sunset this evening, but showers may linger
overnight. As the next trough begins to move in tomorrow, moisture
and precipitation chances get pushed into Mohave County and eastern
Lincoln County. A lingering, isolated flash flood threat (~10%)
persists, but will be lower than today`s risk.

By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have swung through the
area, scouring out moisture and leaving precipitation chances below
10% areawide. The drier airmass in its wake will also be notably
cooler, with highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than Saturday.
These below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist throughout
next week, especially with another trough set to dig along the
Pacific Coast. This system brings precipitation chances (20-50%) to
the western half of our CWA, with chances increasing as you head
west. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of another tropical
system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of precipitation is
expected across central and southern Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Outside
of convective influences, winds should remain light and follow
typical, daily patterns. Best chances for convective influences
appears to be between 21z and 06z as scattered showers and storms
develop in the vicinity. Chances for erratic outflow winds to reach
the terminal (~70%) are greater than odds of a storm moving directly
over the terminal (~40%). Outflow winds are most likely to be in the
20-30 knot range, but if a storm moves directly overhead, stronger
gusts will be possible in addition to brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Scattered to broken clouds between 8-10kft today, with improving sky
conditions overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
storms will be around once again today, mainly along and southeast
of the I-15 corridor but also in eastern Lincoln County. Convective
impacts will include gusty and erratic winds, brief MVFR/IFR
conditions, and scattered to broken clouds generally between 8-
10kft. Outside of convective influences, winds in these areas should
remain light and follow typical, daily patterns. Farther northwest,
sky conditions improve but gusty south winds of 20-30 knots are
forecast to return this afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods


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