338
FXUS65 KVEF 171929
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1229 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Increased monsoonal moisture brings scattered showers and storms
  to the area through Saturday, with flash flooding and gusty
  outflow winds the main hazards.

* Below-normal temperatures today and Friday, with a gradual rebound
  to near seasonal values over the weekend and next week.

* Breezy southwest winds and drier conditions return next week as a
  trough sits off the West Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Latest satellite imagery shows an MCV drifting NW through
southeastern portions of the CWA. This feature, along with the
terrain, will be the lifting mechanism for scattered convection
across Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties this afternoon. Flash
flooding and gusty outflow winds are the primary hazards. Due to the
increased moisture and forecast coverage of storms, opted to issue a
short-fused Flash Flood Watch for the aforementioned counties until
11PM. Farther west, convection and the subsequent hazards will be
more isolated in nature. Tomorrow, precipitation chances become more
widespread across the region, but the greatest coverage is expected
in northern Lincoln and central Nye counties. This area will have
the greatest risk of flash flooding. By Saturday, drier air begins
to move in from the west, bring precip chances down and largely
confining them Mohave and Lincoln counties, though an isolated storm
or two may develop on the Sierra and/or Spring Mountains.

Due to increased moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be 5-10
degrees below normal for most of the area, particularly the eastern
half. As drier air moves in over the weekend and next week,
expecting a rebound to more seasonal values. This drier air will
also be accompanied by increased southwest winds as a trough sits
off the West Coast. Chances for impactful winds appear modest (under
30%) at this point, but breezes could be strong enough to elevate
fire weather conditions in areas that don`t see much precipitation
over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Primary
concern continues to be thunderstorm activity this afternoon and
evening. Convective activity expected to be focused between 21z and
05z. Vicinity convection is likely (90%), but chances of rain at the
terminal are closer to ~50%. Should a storm move overhead, brief
downpours could result in MVFR or IFR conditions. Otherwise, gusty
outflow winds will be the main hazard. Gusts most likely to be in
the 25-40 knot range, but cannot rule out gusts ~50 knots if a storm
moves over the terminal. Outside of convective influences, winds
should largely be from the south at 8-12 knots and gusts up to 20
knots. Scattered to broken clouds around 12kft, potentially dropping
to ~10kft if a storm moves overhead. Temperatures to remain below
100F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered convection
expected this afternoon across northwestern AZ and southeastern NV.
Isolated shower/virga activity possible across our California zones.
Under the heaviest cores, brief downpours could result in MVFR or
IFR conditions. Outflow wind gusts 20-40 knots, possibly higher
should a storm move over an airport. Outside of convective
influences, winds for most of the area will be from the south.
Scattered to broken clouds around 12kft, potentially dropping to
~10kft if a storm moves overhead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Woods

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