957
FXUS65 KVEF 161109
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
409 AM PDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more round of isolated showers and storms is expected today in
  eastern Mohave County, northern Lincoln County, and the Sierra.

* Drier conditions prevail Sunday-Tuesday, but precipitation
  chances and temperatures increase later in the week as a more
  traditional monsoon pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Friday.

The shortwave responsible for aiding ascent for yesterday`s and this
morning`s scattered showers and thunderstorms across Mohave County
(and to a lesser extent, northern Clark and Lincoln Counties)
continues dampening early this morning, resulting in a transition to
southwesterly flow aloft. This southwesterly flow will allow drier
air to overspread the region, shunting lingering moisture to the
north and east. Given the intrusion of dry air, convective potential
will be limited mainly to eastern Mohave and northern Lincoln
counties this afternoon, with the primary concerns remaining
lightning, erratic gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. A
localized flooding threat may also develop, particularly over areas
that received appreciable rainfall the past couple of days. Coverage
of storms today will be less than the past two days, and storms will
largely be diurnally driven, dissipating quickly after sunset. An
isolated shower/storm or two is possible along the Sierra as well,
though the main concern with any of this activity would be gusty
winds and dry lightning.

The drying trend as well as subtle decrease in thicknesses over the
weekend will allow for a brief stint of below normal temperatures,
even as temperatures begin slowly rebounding as early as Monday. By
Tuesday, the ridge over the Central Plains will retrograde and
settle over the Four Corners Region, allowing for a quick rebound to
above normal temperatures Tuesday onward. Thursday and Friday
currently look to be the hottest days, with Major and Extreme
HeatRisk becoming more widespread across the southern two-thirds of
the forecast area. Additionally, the location of the high will be
favorable for a resurgence of monsoonal moisture, with thunderstorm
chances returning to far eastern portions of the area by midweek,
slowly expanding westward through the end of the week. While
ensembles remain in good agreement regarding the evolution of the
pattern, the precise location and strength of the high will dictate
temperatures as well as thunderstorm potential for the end of next
week and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Southeast breezes continue this morning, but speeds should remain 6-
10 knots for the most part. By mid-afternoon, winds increase with
gusts around 20 knots as direction shifts to more of a true south.
After sunset, winds fall below 10 knots. Few mid-level clouds around
12kft, but otherwise mostly clear skies. Temperatures peak around
100F from 22z to 01z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds this morning
give way to another day of breezy southerly/westerly winds across
the region. Gusts generally 15-25 knots. Convection expected to be
more isolated this afternoon, largely confined to eastern Mohave
County, northern Lincoln County, and the Sierra. Gusty, erratic
winds possible near any convection. Winds and precipitation chances
wane after sunset. Few to scattered mid-level clouds, but otherwise
clear skies.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Phillipson/Woods
AVIATION...Woods

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