654
FXUS65 KVEF 051638
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
940 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will gradually warm back up to a few degrees above
  normal by the middle of the week. This warming trend will be
  accompanied by dry weather across the region.

* Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a
  tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into
  the West Coast.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Saturday.

Quiet weather is expected through much of the week as baggy
troughing over the Desert Southwest transitions to ridging around
midweek. Temperatures will slowly rise from a few degrees below
normal today to a few degrees above normal midweek as heights
increase.

As expected, Tropical Storm Priscilla has developed well south of
Cabo San Lucas, and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane. As
has been noted by previous shifts, the big question is whether a
trough digging south from the Gulf of Alaska in the middle of the
week will exert influence far enough south to turn Priscilla north,
or if Priscilla will remain too far south to be influenced by the
trough and presumably continue tracking westward. There is still a
wide spread of model solutions with regards to this question.
However, there seems to be better consensus than yesterday showing
at least some of Priscilla`s moisture getting entrained into the
trough and pulled into the Desert Southwest late in the week or over
the weekend. That being said, there are still differences regarding
how much rain might result and exactly where it might fall.
Confidence in these details is still very low.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Generally light winds expected today following typical
daily trends of light easterly components through the afternoon and
more westerly/southwesterly overnight.  Slightly stronger northeast
winds are expected Monday afternoon with sporatic gusts to 15 knots
possible through the afternoon hours. VFR conditions throughout.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will be lighter
today than in previous days, with gusts 20 knots or less areawide.
Most areas will see winds from a northerly direction, although
terrain will also play a role, as the Owens Valley sees a weak
upvalley (southerly) wind this afternoon and Barstow sees their
usual westerly wind. VFR conditions throughout.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Outler/Morgan

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