330
FXUS65 KVEF 191921
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1220 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A closed low will remain over Arizona this weekend.
Another round of light rain showers will develop and move into
eastern portions of Mohave county this evening and overnight. Winds
will be diminishing across the area this evening and will be light
and variable on Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to
trend upward through mid week. Dry and warm conditions are in
store for the upcoming week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday night.

The light showers and sprinkles in Clark and Mohave counties this
morning have all diminished. Gusty north winds will gradually
diminish during the afternoon and evening hours but gusts above 30
mph are still expected, particularly down the Colorado River Valley.
Most locations will see high temperatures this afternoon a few
degrees higher than yesterday but will be 5+ degrees below their
seasonal normals. The closed upper level low in Arizona will move
north into north central Arizona this evening and provide one last
round of light showers to mainly the eastern portions of Mohave
County this evening and overnight. The low will begin to eject to
the east during the day on Sunday.

On Sunday, a few light showers can`t be ruled out near daybreak in
northeast Mohave County, but otherwise dry conditions are expected
across the area. Temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees
higher on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

Shortwave ridging will be in place on Monday and then the ridge will
amplify into mid week. Ensembles continue to show ridging in place
through much of the week, although a small number of mainly ENS
members do indicate a weak shortwave trough moving through the
southwest mid week which would provide some model cooling and an
increase in winds. At this point the predominant solution and our
forecast is for dry conditions through the week with temperatures
back to near seasonal norms on Monday and then 6 to 8 degrees above
normal by mid week. The latest NBM indicates a 20 percent
probability of Las Vegas reaching 90 degrees Thu-Fri. The global
ensembles move the next trough into the West Coast next weekend but
the timing and strength of the system are still quite uncertain.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast winds will decrease this
afternoon, with gusts likely to end before sunset, but will remain
strong enough to cause runway configuration concerns. Clouds will
also decrease as the afternoon goes on. For tonight through Monday,
no operationally significant clouds, winds, or weather expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...North to northeast winds with gusts of 20 to 30 knots
can be expected over much of the region through this afternoon, with
locally higher gusts in areas of favorably oriented terrain before
decreasing this evening and tonight. Rain chances are expected to
return to northern Mohave county this evening through Sunday
morning, with low ceilings and terrain obscuration the main
concerns. No operationally significant clouds, winds, or weather
expected for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Czyzyk
LONG TERM...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Morgan

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