225
FXUS65 KVEF 050442
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
941 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and breezy conditions will persist into Saturday.

* Rain and storm chances return Saturday afternoon and Sunday as
  moisture surges northward

* Drier conditions for Labor Day, monsoonal moisture and warmer
  temperatures may return mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Mid Next Week.

Dry and breezy conditions across the much of the region today as
upper troughing persists across the western US. Dew points are
currently in the 30s and 40s across areas west of the Colorado River
while areas across northwest Arizona currently sit in the 50s to
lower 60s. This will generally translate into a few clouds over
Mohave County, but with weak instability and overall shallow
moisture anything other than a few virga showers are not expected.
Breezy conditions will continue across much of the region this
afternoon and Saturday with winds generally gusting between 30-35
mph, although a few higher elevations and wind prone valleys seeing
gusts around 40 mph. Due to the lower wind threshold on area lakes,
a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect into this evening for Lake
Mead and Lake Mohave.

Expect some significant changes this weekend as tropical moisture
from Hurricane Marie is pulled north by the aforementioned west
coast trough. We will start to see PWATs increase as early as
Saturday morning with the 1.00" line expanding into the lower
Colorado River Valley by late Saturday morning and expanding into
Clark, San Bernardino, and Mohave counties by Sunday morning. Even
deeper moisture is expected to advect into the region by Sunday
afternoon with PWATs over the southern CWA reaching around 1.50".
Some isolated showers will be possible as early as Saturday over
southern Mohave County due to a weak shortwave tracking northward.
Instability remains rather weak with CAPE values generally less than
200 J/kg, but the shortwave itself may be enough to generate a few
showers in the afternoon. Confidence is increasing that portions of
the area will see a band of light to moderate rainfall Sunday
extending from the southwest to the northeast. Exactly where this
band sets up will be a big determining factor on how much and who
has the highest threat, but at this point the models have been
favoring areas generally south and east of a line extending from
Caliente to Desert Rock to Ridgecrest. This area is also in a
favored right entrance region of a 100+ knot jet which should also
help to support lift and combined with the previously mentioned mid-
upper shortwave moving north will provide enough lift to enhance an
area of showers and isolated convection. Rainfall amounts are
generally expected to be around 0.10"-0.50", but a lot will depend
on where this band sets up. Temperatures on Sunday will be rather
cool and likely around 10 degrees below normal; however, for areas
that see clouds and rain could potentially see highs 15-20 degrees
below normal.

Looking toward next week, longer range guidance shows drier air
filtering back into the region Labor Day and Tuesday. A
Southwesterly flow pattern looks to somewhat remain in place next
week, however guidance continues to hint at the upper jet retreating
northward as ridging tries to rebuild from New Mexico westward into
the Mojave Desert. While Monday and Tuesday look much drier than
Sunday, watching for signals that a monsoonal pattern may be trying
to set up again going into mid to late next week. Lower confidence
exists in the overall details, but confidence is slowly increasing
in a pattern supportive of monsoon activity returning, which is also
reflected in CPC`s 6-10 day precipitation outlook. In fact, CPC
highlights portions of the CRV and eastern Mojave Desert for slight
risk of heavy precipitation Sept 11-13th. CPC 6-10 day outlook now
shows a signal toward a pattern supportive of above normal
temperatures locally as ridging builds over the Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...South to
southwest winds will continue throughout the TAF period, with the
strongest winds occurring during the afternoon hours Saturday. Gusts
of 20 to 30 knots are likely, with only a slight chance (10 percent)
of seeing a gust to 35 knots. Clear skies will persist into Saturday
afternoon, when a few high clouds will start to overspread the
region. Periods of showers and CIGs below 8kft AGL are possible by
Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below 100F into Monday.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southerly winds
will give way to gusty conditions once again Saturday. Wind gusts of
20 to 30 knots will be common through the afternoon before
diminishing after sunset. Skies will remain mainly clear through
tonight, but mid- and high-level clouds will begin to increase south
to north through the day on Saturday. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Moore
AVIATION...Planz

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