Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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268
FXUS65 KVEF 091951
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1151 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad shortwave ridge continues to build across the Desert
Southwest, resulting in beautiful Fall weather conditions. Light
winds, seasonably mild temperatures, and clear skies will
generally be the rule through the weekend, with no real impacts to
speak of.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday...
With upper ridging in control, very pleasant conditions are
foreast through the remainder of the week. Winds will remain quite
light with only a few passing high clouds. Temperatures to run
near or just above seasonal normals, making for exceptional
weather for recreating. The only potential impact will stem from
the ongoing Happy Fire in California, which may bring some high-
elevation smoke to portions of Inyo and Esmeralda counties. This
will be more noticable overnight as mixing decreases and smoke
becomes trapped. Even if smoke materializes, impacts should be
quite minimal.


.LONG TERM...This Week...
A rather substantial pattern change is noted in the ensemble
guidance as flow becomes more progressive and a series of storm
systems move across the Western U.S. The first will emerge as an
open wave moving across California and toward the Four Corners
region by midweek. This will result in a period of breezy/gusty
west/southwest winds and a bit of a cooldown as compared to this
weekend. Per the NBM, most areas will see at least sub-advisory
level wind gusts of 30-40 mph (50-70%), including the Las Vegas
Valley Monday into Monday Night. Given the west/southwest flow,
odds of stronger gusts will generally be limited to the higher
terrain, especially the Sierra, and adjacent Owens Valley, where
some downsloping may occur. This is where wind gusts of 40-55 mph
will be most probable (60-80%). Some light snow will likely affect
the Sierra and nearby White Mountians as this system moves
through. Light accumulations of 1-3 inches can be expected above
7000 ft. A modest reinforcing shot of cooler air will knock
maximum temperatures back 5-10 degrees by Tuesday, but things look
to rebound rather quickly as ridging gradually builds in again.

Beyond Wednesday, confidence is quite high that another upper
trough will begin to dig south and east off the West Coast. There
remains considerable uncertaintny, however, on just how
intense/deep the low will become, and how quickly it will progress
eastward. Ensembles have trended slightly slower with this
feature over the last 24 hours, and it would make sense if the
system winds up being a stronger one. Downstream ridging will
likely yield a few days of warming temperatures from Wednesday on
through Friday. As we get into next weekend, ensembles are quite
insistent on the arrival of cloudier, breezier, and cooler
conditions, though this will all depend on the timinig and
intensity of the late week storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal wind pattern expected
through the weekend, with light south to southwest winds in the
nights and mornings and light easterly winds in the afternoons. No
operationally significant cloud cover.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds less than 15 knots are expected areawide
through Sunday. Westerly winds could increase over the Sierra
crest as early as Sunday night. No operationally significant cloud
cover.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Morgan

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