066
FXUS65 KVEF 120927
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
227 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot weather will continue through the forecast period...with
  major heat risk increasing in coverage early next week.

* Moisture will increase this weekend leading to a slight chance
  of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the higher terrain
  of Northwest Arizona and the Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next week.

A weak upper level disturbance near the mouth of the Colorado
River is spreading some increased high cloud cover into the
Mojave Desert and northern Arizona early this morning. This
feature is our first hint at a modest moisture increase that will
bring some low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms
starting today and continuing into the weekend. Precipitable water
values by this afternoon will climb to 200% of normal along and
south of the I-15 corridor, and enough instability will be present
to spark a few weak showers across the Sierra and northwest
Arizona, and perhaps a few other higher terrain pockets across the
region. Moisture will peak on Saturday with fairly robust
convection suggested across the Colorado Plateau by this evenings
convective allowing models, which may bring some light rainfall
and gusty winds to Mohave County Saturday afternoon. Aside from
the spotty shower chances, the increased moisture and cloud cover
will also help to moderate the heat across the region, though
alternatively may keep overnight lows elevated.

Speaking of heat, as the moisture profile thins next week and
heights begin to climb again, heat will become the dominant
weather concern. In fact, major to extreme heat risk increases in
coverage Monday through Thursday next week as high temps across
the Mojave Desert Valleys climb towards 110, 110s in the Colorado
River Valley, near 120 in the lowest reaches of Death Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Light and variable winds are expected this morning. A
brief period of southeast winds around 8KT will set up around 18Z
before winds increase out of the south in the afternoon. Gusts up to
20KT are expected after 21Z through the early evening. Gusts will
end around sunset but elevated south winds around 10KT will persist
through about 06Z. Winds will drop below 8KT after 06Z and continue
to be light through the night. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees
between 18Z through 04Z on Friday. FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft
will develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...West winds at 10-15KT
will continue through the morning at KDAG. Elsewhere, winds under
10KT are expected. South to southwest winds will develop late
morning and afternoon, gusting 15-25KT in most locations. KDAG will
see west winds up to 25KT starting around 00Z. Winds will slowly
diminish after sunset this evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop this morning in the southern Colorado
River Valley, then around KBIH in the afternoon, but the chance is
low (20% or less). If precipitation were able to develop, they could
produce sudden gusty outflow winds and lightning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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