675
FXUS65 KVEF 031809
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1108 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast through today as an upper level system
shifts through the region. Impacts will be limited with small hail
and sudden gusty winds possible, as well as light to briefly
moderate snow above 5000ft. Isolated showers are possible in
Mohave County on Friday, otherwise the rest of the forecast is dry
into next week. Temperatures will remain well below normal today
but will slowly recover and return to near normal over the
weekend with well above normal readings expected by the middle of
next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Current satellite imagery shows an area of growing cumulus
over northern Mohave County, corresponding to light returns on
radar. These are forming in a pocket of greater instability with
MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, which will grow in spatial extent later
today. As a result, high resolution guidance shows shower activity
becoming more abundant across southern Nevada and northwestern
Arizona this afternoon, particularly over high terrain where a few
inches of snow cannot be ruled out above 5000 ft. Still thinking
that shower activity will be more limited compared to yesterday as
the low is weakening as it moves east and moisture is becoming more
limited.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

Radar through the early morning hours showed light showers
lingering over northeast Clark and northern Mohave County under an
upper level low centered over southwest Utah. Light rain amounts
were reported at times but no impacts were noted with this feature.
This area of light precipitation will shift east into northeast
Mohave County through the morning, but will likely dry up as it does
so. Again this morning- models were not handling the lingering weak
instability that was noted on mesoanalysis, so hesitant to say
showers will end completely in northern Mohave County this morning
as the low does not move and the few models that did have some
instability kept isolated showers around in the Arizona Strip through
the morning. Light showers are possible, but impacts will continue
to be minimal to none.

A similar weather set up to yesterday is expected today with a deep
upper level trough sitting over western Arizona through the day.
Compared to yesterday though, PWATs will be lower and midlevels will
be warmer as heights increase as the trough begins to weaken. With
less moisture and instability, showers will be less widespread than
yesterday. Precipitation should develop under the trough axis in
southern Nevada into Arizona, but there should be less coverage and
showers will favor the terrain. In addition- with less moisture,
showers will be less efficient with lighter rain rates and a lower
chance for precipitation to reach the ground. Small hail and brief
gusty winds will be possible again today with any showers and
isolated thunderstorms that develop, but with less instability there
will be a lower risk for impacts. Snow levels will be a little
higher than yesterday, around 5000-6000ft, but with less moisture
there should be less snow accumulation than yesterday. The peaks of
the Spring Mountains could see another 2-3 inches today, with maybe
an inch in elevations to 6000ft through the afternoon. Further west
in western San Bernardino County into Inyo, Esmeralda, most of Nye
county- it will likely remain dry today with mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be light across the region. Temperatures will be a degree
or two warmer than yesterday, and north winds will be lighter so it
may feel less chilly overall- however high temperatures today will
remain 10-15 degrees below normal for the beginning of April.

The upper level trough will lift out Friday and Saturday, moving
away from the region and taking the showers and cold temperatures
with it. On Friday, precipitation chances will be limited to Mohave
County where colder temperatures aloft and some cyclonic flow from
the exiting system will continue to have some influence, but impacts
will be low as moisture and forcing continue to decrease. Further
west, it will remain dry. By Saturday, the entire area will remain
precipitation free. A ridge will build in behind the trough, which
will put the region in a transition area on Friday and Saturday
between the two systems. This will result in breezy north winds,
with gusts of 15-25 MPH likely areawide on Friday then 25-35 MPH
gusts on Saturday. The best chance for wind impacts will be on
Saturday in the Colorado River Valley where there is a moderate
chance (60%-80%) for gusts over 40 MPH. Temperatures will rebound as
heights rise and a warmer airmass begins to move in, each day
warming about 5 degrees warmer than the previous. By Saturday, high
temperatures will be only be a couple of degrees below normal- a big
chance from the 20 degree below normal temperatures we had on
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

Through the weekend and start of next week, skies clear and
temperatures increase above seasonal normals as a ridge of high
pressure builds in the Pacific across the Desert Southwest. Monday
and Tuesday have a 95% and 100% chance, respectively, for reaching
80 degrees here in Las Vegas. HeatRisk increases back to "Low"
(Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys over the weekend
including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and
the Colorado River Valley.

[Note] "Low" HeatRisk does not mean that chances of heat-related
illness are low for any one individual - it means chances are low
for the general population. People who should take extra precautions
during "Low" HeatRisk days include those out of town from cooler
locations, those consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs, and
those without adequate means of hydration or air conditioning.

Meanwhile, chances of 90 degrees return to Las Vegas and 100 degrees
return to Death Valley mid-to-late week as the southeastern Pacific
ridge continues to build into the extended forecast. HeatRisk climbs
to "Moderate" (Level 2 on a scale of 0-4) for our lowest valleys on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
across the Las Vegas Valley should remain below 10 knots today,
initially favoring a easterly direction late this morning, but
turning  westerly by early afternoon.  After that, winds will turn
more southwesterly during the evening before turning northerly by
daybreak. A period of breezy northeast winds is possible tomorrow
morning and early afternoon, with a 65 percent chance of seeing a
gust to 20 knots between 16Z and 21Z.  Winds are expected to fall
below 10 knots by late tomorrow afternoon.  A few isolated showers
are possible again this afternoon, and short-duration interruptions
in the prevailing wind field will be possible.  If this were to
occur, expect winds to 20 knots from the direction of the showers
for a period of 15 to 30 minutes.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas Valley TAF sites will be similar to what is described for
Harry Reid. Elsewhere, winds will be lighter today than yesterday,
with speeds in most areas remaining less than 10 knots through the
afternoon.  A typical westerly increase is expected across the
western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, after 02Z, when gusts of up
to 20 knots will be possible.  Winds will remain light elsewhere.
Mainly favorable winds will continue on Friday, except in the lower
Colorado River Valley, where gusty northerly winds of up to 25 knots
are forecast to develop after 15Z.   A few scattered showers remain
possible this afternoon, mainly over far eastern Nevada and
northwest Arizona. Expect brief, gusty winds of up to 25 knots in
and near any activity that develops.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the region through Friday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meltzer
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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