053
FXUS65 KVEF 020814
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
114 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a low
  pressure system moves through. Sudden strong wind gusts will
  again be a concern.

* Drier conditions resume by Friday with a warming trend heading
  into next week.

* Breezy conditions and low humidity will lead to elevated fire
  danger for the 4th of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week.

Another active day is in store today as a low pressure system
moves through and interacts with a pool of mid-level moisture
across the region. Moisture depth has increased a bit compared to
Tuesday and surface dewpoints have risen notably as well, which
should work to encourage wetter storms. However, strong wind gusts
will remain a possibility with the stronger storm cores especially
in the afternoon and evening thanks to a deeply mixed lower
atmosphere. HREF once again suggest about a 10% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 58 mph across much of southern Nevada and
Northwest Arizona with 70-90% probabilities for wind gusts over
40 mph. The incoming low is also responsible for ongoing weak
convection extending from the southern Great Basin into the
eastern Mojave Desert early this morning, mainly west of Las
Vegas. This activity will continue into the morning hours and
slowly develop eastward, so a few rumbles and gusty winds will be
possible in the morning hours within the Las Vegas Valley before
more robust redevelopment occurs later in the day.

As the low moves eastward and weakens today into Thursday, drier
air will gradually work east. This will result in precipitation
chances tapering from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday,
though some lingering activity will persist into Thursday
afternoon across Mohave County and perhaps Lincoln and Clark
Counties. Drier air will sweep through area wide by Friday with
temperatures hovering near to slightly below normal over the
weekend before a warming trend begins next week.

Thunderstorm activity will trend wetter today which should limit
the coverage of Dry lightning, though western areas of the Great
Basin and parts of the Mojave Desert may still see relatively
little rainfall with the storms. Nonetheless, surface dewpoints
will keep minimum RH values elevated and help to improve the fire
danger somewhat. However, breezy southwesterly winds on Friday
will return with much drier air pushing in, and will result in
elevated fire danger Friday, just in time for the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds are expected through daybreak before turning east
to southeast by mid-morning.  An isolated shower will be possible
throughout the night, although a better chance is forecast after
15Z.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely during the
afternoon and early evening, and gusts to 40 knots are possible once
again in and near this activity. Conditions will improve tomorrow
evening as the activity shifts off to the east.  Skies will be SCT
to BKN through the period with bases generally around 15kft AGL
except near convection where CIGs of 10kft to 12kft AGL are
possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area terminals will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, light northerly winds in the Owens Valley
are expected to turn southerly by tomorrow afternoon.  A few
isolated showers are possible near KBIH, but the majority of the
convection should remain over the higher terrain.  A few isolated
showers and storms are also possible in the Colorado River valley
during the afternoon, especially from KIFP north.  KDAG will see
more typical conditions with gusty westerly winds developing by
early evening.  Skies will be SCT to BKN through the period with
bases generally around 15kft AGL except near convection where CIGs
of 10kft to 12kft AGL are possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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