246
FXUS65 KVEF 312259
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
359 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flash Flood Watch in effect for northern Mohave County today, with
  shower and thunderstorm potential across our eastern zones.

* Relatively drier and cooler conditions expected through the work
  week, though uncertainty increases this weekend.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

The concern of the day will be our eastern zones, with primary focus
across northern Mohave County. Today, the region has between 0.75
and 1.00 inches of PWAT. Simultaneously, there is longwave troughing
over the western CONUS that will usher a shortwave into the southern
Great Basin this afternoon. Coupled with daytime heating, forecast
HRRR soundings continue to show over 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE across
northwestern Arizona today. As of 10 AM PDT/MST, we have issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning east of Kingman along Interstate 40 near
Fort Rock (expired 9:45am) and currently have a Flood Advisory in
effect for areas east of Kingman due to training thunderstorms.
Gauges in the area have picked up around 0.50 inches over the last
hour. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage as the day
goes on and will be efficient rain-makers, resulting in flash
flooding. Be weather aware today if spending time outdoors or
driving on roads with low-water crossings across Mohave County.
Cannot rule out thunderstorms in eastern Clark or eastern Lincoln
counties as well, particularly with convective initiation off of
outflow boundaries. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the
Arizona Strip, which includes areas along and north of the Colorado
River in Mohave County until midnight tonight.

Throughout the work week, a dry southwesterly flow continues across
the area. Moisture from Hurricane Karina in the eastern Pacific has
the potential to get wrapped up into the flow aloft, which will
bring increased cloud cover to the region, which will assist with
cooler afternoon temperatures. Looking ahead late-week into the
weekend, there is considerable uncertainty as it pertains to chances
of precipitation. There is a tropical disturbance in the
southeastern Pacific Ocean with a 90 percent chance of formation in
the next 48 hours. The trajectory of this future storm will highly
impact precipitation chances in the Mojave Desert... Should it take
on a more westward / southward trajectory, then we could simply get
increased cloud cover. Will continue to assess as we move through
the week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South-
southwest winds likely to continue throughout the TAF period,
strongest from late morning through sunset with gusts 20-30 knots.
There remains a low (~25%) chance of northeasterly outflow winds
reaching the terminal between 03z-08z, but no convection in the
vicinity. Few to scattered clouds around 12kft, with mostly clear
skies late tonight and tomorrow. Temps remain below 100F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated to scattered
storms continue in Mohave and Lincoln counties this evening,
clearing out overnight. Gusty outflow winds, hail, and heavy rain
possible with the strongest cores. Elsewhere, breezy southerly to
westerly winds persist with gusts generally 15-30 knots. Winds
subside after sunset, but remain breezy in the KDAG area into the
overnight hours. Few to scattered clouds at or above 10kft, with
scattered to broken conditions in northern Mohave and eastern
Lincoln counties.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods

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