033
FXUS65 KVEF 161116
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
416 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Terrain-based, afternoon and evening convection will continue
  through the end of the week with greater coverage east of Las
  Vegas.

* Near-to-slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  Thursday, with temperatures decreasing slightly heading into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

Midnight satellite imagery shows cloud cover left over from
convection in Arizona earlier tonight slowly spreading over the
forecast area.  The presence of these mid and high clouds could
delay the onset of convection today, depending on how long it delays
surface heating after sunrise. There remains plenty of moisture with
PWATS in the 1.2 to 2.0 inch range across eastern San Bernardino,
Mohave, Lincoln, and Clark Counties, along with 500 to 1000 J/kg
CAPE to work with. As seen with previous storms this week, localized
downpours and gusty winds are the primary concerns. The greatest
precipitation potential and flooding concerns are in eastern Mohave
County along high terrain where instability, lift, and atmospheric
moisture are the greatest. Gusty outflow winds may travel far from
their parent storms and last into Thursday night. An inverted trough
will provide enhanced moisture advection and lift on Friday and
Saturday, especially over northwestern Arizona and southern Nevada.
Monsoonal moisture will remain in place through the middle of next
week.

Today`s temperatures should be similar to yesterday`s with highs in
the upper 100s to low 110s in most valleys around the Mojave Desert
with overnight lows in the 80s to low 90s. These temperatures plus
monsoonal humidity result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with
pockets of High (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. Temperatures decrease
through the end of the week as atmospheric moisture and
precipitation potential increase.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Low
confidence TAF forecast. Light winds are initially expected early
this morning, later favoring east or southeast  but likely staying
under 8KT. As convection develops around the valley after 21Z, winds
will become erratic and depend on thunderstorm activity. Favored a
south wind in the afternoon with gusts up to 20KT outside of
thunderstorm influence. Higher gusts and brief heavy rain are
possible if storms develop closer to the valley. While most likely
storms will wind down after sunset, some models have convection
lingering through the evening and early overnight. Gusty south to
southeast winds should persist through the first part of the night,
though again wind direction and speeds will highly depend on how
much thunderstorm activity develops this afternoon. By 09Z, winds
should become south at 8-10KT through Friday morning. FEW-SCT clouds
around 10kft are expected through the period, with BKN CIGs at or
below 10kft if storms directly impact the terminals.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Outside of convection,
expect light winds favoring the south to southeast today. Breezy
southeast winds will develop at KBIH this afternoon with gusts over
20 KT through sunset. KDAG will see gusty west winds developing
around 00Z after light winds much of the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly in the
terrain of far southern and eastern Nevada into western Arizona. Any
storms may contain lightning, sudden gusty outflow winds, brief
heavy rain, and CIGs below 10kft. Storms in Mohave County may cause
an east or southeast outflow that pushes through the Colorado River
Valley tonight, which could trigger additional thunderstorms in or
around KEED and KIFP. Some models also show storms with gusty
outflow winds around KDAG around 21Z this afternoon, but confidence
in this developing is low. Storms may linger in southern Nevada
longer than the past few days, not ending until 09Z. Outside of
precipitation, CIGs should remain at or above 15kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Nickerson

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