677
FXUS65 KVEF 282002
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
105 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Last day of dangerous heat expected across the Mojave Desert
  toDAY before the start of a cooling trend.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms across the region through
  Saturday, with gusty winds and heavy rain being the greatest
  threat.

* Gusty winds Saturday afternoon with sporadic gusts 35-40+ mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Next Thursday
A pattern shift is on the way for the next week for the Desert
Southwest bringing an end to the extreme heat and record breaking
temperatures for late summer. Strong 500 mb ridging which has been
the dominant weather influence over the past week finally shifts
eastward today as a series of troughs pushes into the west coast
into next week bringing relatively cooler and drier conditions.

For today, a 594dm upper ridge is centered over the Four Corners
region while an upper trough slowly pushes into the west coast.
Satellite imagery clearly depicts the jet streak and associated
moisture return and clouds ahead of the trough stretching from the
Pacific to Central California and into Central and Northern Nevada.
The presence of clouds today has already kept temperatures about 5-8
degrees cooler than they were yesterday at this time, but even then
temperatures are still above normal for this time of year. In fact,
yesterday, Las Vegas broke their daily record high, reaching 111F
and also broke a record warm low temperature at 92F! Yesterday was
officially the latest date at which Las Vegas has ever observed a
low temperature at or above 90 degrees.  Despite a slow downward
trend in temperatures into the weekend, they will still remain
several degrees above normal for late summer. An Extreme Heat
Warning remains in effect through this evening for the Mojave
Desert. While afternoon high temperatures have been this hot (or
hotter) earlier in the summer without heat headlines, it is
important to note that there is historically a resurgence of heat-
related impacts at the end of the season. See the CLIMATE section at
the bottom for daily records.

A monsoonal pattern still remains in place for the Southwest ahead
of the approaching trough. Moisture advection northward has been
much slower than what guidance has suggested the past few days, but
it appears somewhat deeper moisture has finally surged northward.
Dew points today are running about 10 degrees higher than they were
yesterday with widespread 50s observed. High clouds have kept most
convection at bay early this afternoon with the exception of
northern Mohave County where better instability and a weak mid/upper
wave has sparked off showers and thunderstorms. While storm motion
has been at or above 20 kts, storm motion parallel to the mean flow
is causing training, which may increase the Flash Flood threat for
the rest of the day. Already seeing afternoon cu develop across
Southern Nevada in areas receiving more sunshine and surface
heating. Instability is still only marginal across Nevada and SE
California, which may keep convective coverage lower than what CAMs
guidance suggests for later this afternoon. Outside of Mohave
County, best chances for storms look to be in the higher terrain.
Any storm has the capability of producing heavy rain, lightning,
gusty winds, and flash flooding. As the trough slowly pushes east
tomorrow, drier air advects in from the northwest; however enough
moisture should still be around in portions of Northern Mohave
County and Lincoln counties to support additional convective
development. Similar set up tomorrow but with better upper level
dynamics, supporting more organized clusters of storms and the
possibility for training and flash flooding.

Windy conditions possible this weekend from in the southern portion
of the forecast area including San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave
Counties. A stronger mid level jet streak of 35-45 kts moves
overhead Saturday ahead of the incoming trough. Strong afternoon
mixing into this jet streak may produce surface wind gusts over 40
mph at times. Best day for strongest winds appears to be Saturday,
but still watching Sunday and Monday as well as stronger vort max
associated with the upper trough axis pushes through which could
enhance wind gusts.


&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds of
10 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected this
afternoon and early evening. Initially, winds may be more south-
southeast (160 to 190 degrees true), but should settle into a more
south to southwest direction (200 to 230 degrees true) by 20Z.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain surrounding the valley early this afternoon, and the latest
guidance indicates some of the convection could work its way into
the valley. A PROB30 group has been added to the TAF in the latest
package from 2822/2902 to account for this. Regardless of whether
the storms make it into the valley, gusty outflow winds from any
storms that develop in the area will be the main concern. Any
convection that develops will diminish after sunset, and typical
southwest winds are expected overnight. Additional convection is
possible Saturday afternoon, although coverage looks to be less than
what is expected today. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z
this evening.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will follow
typical daily directional trends with speeds of 12 knots or less
into early this afternoon before increasing and becoming gusty in
most areas through the afternoon. The exception to this will be the
western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, where winds will favor a more
westerly direction through the TAF period. Scattered areas of
convection will develop across much of the region this afternoon,
with gusty erratic winds, lightning, rain, and CIGs below 10kft
possible with any storms that develop. Winds and convection will
diminish after sunset. Additional areas of convection are possible
Saturday, although coverage looks to be less than what is expected
this afternoon.


&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     110(2019)*
Bishop        103(2017)
Needles       116(2023)*
Daggett       111(2017)
Kingman       107(2009)
Desert Rock   107(2017)
Death Valley  120(2011)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     86(2019)*
Bishop        62(1970)
Needles       94(2017)
Daggett       82(2017)*
Kingman       75(2019)*
Desert Rock   77(2011)*
Death Valley 100(2019)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Moore
AVIATION...Planz

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