800
FXUS65 KVEF 261647
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
947 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures gradually rising near to above normal through early
  next week, resulting in Moderate HeatRisk.

* Slow return of moisture next week, with thunderstorm chances
  increasing for Mohave County as early as Tuesday and spreading
  farther northwest later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Early morning satellite loop showed clear skies areawide. Surface
obs showed light winds and temperatures about five degrees warmer
than 24 hours ago. Overall, there is very little change to
forecast reasoning through early next week. High pressure slowly
building in from the southeast will lead to temperatures gradually
rising through the weekend into early next week. Yesterday was
probably the last sub-100 degree high temperature at KLAS until a
thunderstorm day occurs. (More on that shortly.) Despite the
rising highs, since we are well into the hot season and within a
few degrees of the climatological peak heat of summer, HeatRisk
only climbs into the Moderate category except for a few splotches
of Major on Monday. As noted by previous shifts, this looks too
isolated in space and time to justify any heat headlines, but will
keep an eye on it. The building ridge to the east plus weak low
pressure approaching from the Pacific will combine to bring a weak
influx of monsoon moisture into Mohave County as early as
Tuesday, with chances for thunderstorms slowly increasing and
expanding farther west Tuesday and Wednesday. For three straight
days, the GFS ensembles have been more bullish on this scenario
than the ECMWF. With each passing day, the NBM has been trending a
bit slower/more bearish with the onset of PoPs. Will continue to
watch trends in the details, but the main message is that
thunderstorm season is almost here.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain light following typical diurnal directional patterns
through the morning hours. South-southeasterly breezes will pick up
in the afternoon with sustained speeds around 10 knots and wind
gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Wind direction will fluctuate between
130 and 180 degrees during the afternoon. By sunset, winds should
return to their typical south-southwest direction. Clear skies with
temperatures exceeding 100F between 21z and 02z, peaking around
102F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and
southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South-
southeast breezes will pick up across much of the area this
afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots. The exception to this is the
western Mojave Desert where winds will remain relatively light,
following typical diurnal directional trends through the afternoon.
Winds will pick up and flip back to the west-southwest around
sunset with wind gusts around 25 knots continuing into the evening
hours. VFR conditions under mostly clear skies across the region,
with just a few mid-level and high clouds over the southern Great
Basin.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Stessman

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