207
FXUS65 KVEF 120414
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
915 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Breezy south-southwesterly winds expected across the region,
   potentially impacting boaters and resulting in increased fire
   danger.

*  Chances for precipitation do not return until at least early next
   week but remain low and uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will dig into the region from the Northwest US
through the weekend. The center of the system will remain to our
north, so it will remain dry with no rain chances through the
weekend. As the pressure gradient increases with the passing system,
south to southwest winds will also increase. Widespread gusts 25-35
MPH are expected each afternoon with the strongest winds expected on
Saturday. Isolated gusts to 40 MPH are possible, especially in the
Western Mojave Desert where NBM shows spotty 50%+ probabilities for
gusts over 40 MPH, but widespread wind impacts are not expected. As
southerly flow sets up in the Colorado River Valley, impactful winds
and waves are possible this weekend on Lake Mead and Lake Mohave.
With a dry airmass and breezy winds, fires could easily start and
spread. As the trough lifts out early next week, winds will
gradually decrease each afternoon. Around midweek, gusts will drop
to 20 MPH or less.

Once the trough exits early next week, high pressure will try to
reestablish itself. Heights will build back west, but with strong
zonal flow aloft still, it will struggle. Some moisture may sneak
north into western Arizona and the forecast has low chances for
thunderstorms in portions of Mohave County starting Tuesday
afternoon. With uncertainty in how the area of high pressure sets
up, low confidence in thunderstorm chances next week. Temperatures
this weekend will drop to near normal, and with only weak high rises
next week temperatures should remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Southwest winds around 10 knots are expected through the overnight
period with occasional gusts to around 20 knots possible at times.
Southwest winds will once again increase after 18Z with sustained
winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots into Saturday evening. VFR
conditions will persist through the TAF period. Temperatures will
once again exceed 100 degrees Saturday from 19Z to 02Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Southwest to west winds
are expected to persist overnight with most areas seeing wind speeds
10-15 knots with occasional gusts to around 20 knots. The exceptions
will be KDAG where gusts around 30 knots are likely and winds at
KEED/KIFP will see south winds 25-30 knots. Gusty south to southwest
winds are expected to develop again Saturday afternoon. FEW to SCT
mid and high clouds will filter through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red
Flag Warning and is in effect from 11AM Saturday through midnight
for Nye, Esmeralda, and portions of Lincoln and Clark counties.
Concerns include RH ranging from 5 to 15% while winds increase to 25
MPH and gusts to around 35 MPH. Winds will continue into the early
overnight as humidities begin to recover by late that night.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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