937
FXUS65 KVEF 230319
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
716 PM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring well above normal
temperatures to the area this weekend and into next week. An
upcoming system has the potential to bring precipitation and
increased winds late next week, but uncertainty remains high at this
time.

&&

.UPDATE...Weak shortwave pushing through the northern Great Basin
will provide a few high clouds to the area tonight and Sunday, but
little else. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal
and overall we can expect generally light winds. No updates to the
current forecast.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION
252 PM PST SAT Feb 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...Through Friday.

A ridge is expected to build over the Southwest US the next few
days, which will result in dry and warm conditions. Well above
normal temperatures, by at least 8-10 degrees, are likely most days
starting Sunday through much of next week.The warmest day of next
week should be Tuesday as a shortwave maven through the Pacific
Northwest knocks the ridge axis downs lightly. Anomalously high
heights will still be in place over our region though, and with an
increased pressure gradient due to the system passing to the north-
increased winds will allow for efficient mixing into warmer air.
High temperatures on Tuesday will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal
in many locations. Level 1 out of 4 "minor" heat risk is expected
Monday onward in most valley locations of far southern Nevada,
southeast California, and western Arizona- including Las Vegas,
Death Valley, and Lake Mead National Parks areas. While this level
of heat is tolerated by most, anyone who is sensitive to the heat or
is visiting from cooler climates and isn`t prepared for warmer
temperatures could be at risk and should be prepared by drinking
extra water.

Late next week, long range models show a potential upper level
system moving through the region. Models continue to struggle with
the strength and speed of this system as it moves into south-central
California into the desert Southwest. IVT plumes do not show any
significant moisture associated with this system with probabilities
for over 250kg/m/s being near zero. If a stronger low was able to
develop, precipitation is possible in the terrain of Inyo County,
however impactful precipitation is unlikely given the lack of
moisture. Winds would be the most likely impact if impactful weather
were to develop with this system. NBM probabilities for wind gusts
over 40 MPH remain low to moderate (30%-60%) and diffuse across the
region for the Thursday and Friday timeframe, with any probabilities
over 50% currently being isolated and focused on the terrain. Given
the uncertainty surrounding the system, these probabilities will
likely become more in tuned in coming days. Temperatures may also
respond with the incoming system, however this would be a warmer
type of system so a drastic cool down is unlikely. A decently large
temperatures spread is noted in high temperatures late next week,
through even the 10th percentile would keep temperatures above
normal for this time of the year so continued mild temperatures are
likely through the week no matter what the low pressure system
looks like as it moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light
winds under 8KT will follow diurnal wind patterns through Sunday
evening. VFR conditions will prevail with passing high clouds
with bases around 25kft, and no operational impacts anticipated.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly winds
continue late this afternoon at KIFP, with gusts to around 20KT
expected to diminish within the first hour or two of the forecast
period. Thereafter, winds remain northerly, with sustained speeds
dropping to around 10KT, before gusts return by late Sunday
morning. Elsewhere, winds will generally follow diurnal patterns
through Sunday, albeit with some variability. Speeds will remain
around 10KT or less, with FEW-SCT high clouds with bases around
25kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Phillipson

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