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FXUS65 KVEF 070500
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1000 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected through midweek as
  high pressure builds across the region.

* Increasing confidence for shower and thunderstorm activity
  Thursday through Saturday as moisture from Hurricane Priscilla
  moves into the Desert Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Dry weather will continue through Wednesday as high pressure
builds in across the region. A strengthening surface high over
the Great Basin will lead to breezy conditions today and tomorrow
across the Colorado River Valley but wind speeds will remain below
any headline levels. Meanwhile, temperatures will quickly return
to above normal by tomorrow and Wednesday.

More consequential weather is expected Thursday through the
weekend as the remains of Hurricane Priscilla interact with an
approaching Pacific trough. Model guidance in the past 24 hours
has trended more towards keeping the remains of the tropical
system somewhat cohesive while tracking northwest along the Baja
Coast before being absorbed within the southwesterly flow aloft.
This results in increasing precipitation chances as early as
Thursday afternoon, mainly along and south of I-15. The best and
most widespread precipitation chances remain favored for Friday
and Saturday, with better agreement on drier air sweeping in with
the trough by Sunday. Overall, highest precipitation chances and
heaviest totals remain favored across areas along and south of
I-15, especially northwest Arizona. With precipitable water
anomalies of 300% of normal or greater by Friday, very high
precipitation efficiency will be a concern and may result in
flooding impacts. Meanwhile, temperatures will trend downward
Thursday onward thanks to increasing moisture and cloud cover, as
well as falling height as the trough moves through over the
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Light winds are expected overnight, favoring either the
north or northeast before becoming light and variable after
midnight. By Tuesday morning light winds favoring typical daily
trends will resume with VFR conditions expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...VFR Conditions expected
through the TAF period. Surface winds will favor north or northeast
directions through this evening, with north winds persisting into
the night near KIFP and KEED. Lighter winds will resume Tuesday but
elevated northerly winds of 10-15 knots will persist along the
Colorado River Valley through the afternoon before diminishing in.
the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson


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