462
FXUS65 KVEF 150739
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1239 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for terrain-based, afternoon and evening convection will
  continue through the end of the week.

* Near-to-slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  midweek, with temperatures decreasing slightly heading into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Tuesday.

Another round of monsoonal thunderstorms is on tap for tomorrow.
Convective initiation will depend on how much cloud cover drifts
into the area from Arizona and Utah tonight, and how fast it
clears out in the morning. There is still plenty of moisture,
with PWATs over one inch for most of the Mojave Desert. However,
instability is still not impressive, generally between 500 and 800
J/kg, with around 10 knots or less of shear on forecast
soundings. Most storm activity should start off over the mountains
and high terrain with the assistance of orographic lift.
Localized heavy downpours are possible under the storms
themselves, and outflow boundaries may lead to gusty winds far
from the parent storms, along with additional storm formation.
High resolution guidance shows some potential for a secondary
round of storms in the late afternoon and evening over northwest
Arizona triggered by outflow from activity over the Mogollon Rim.
Persistent monsoonal moisture advection brings daily thunderstorm
chances each afternoon, with increasing risk for heavy rain and
flash flooding Friday and this weekend as lower levels of the
atmosphere moisten.

Today and tomorrow will be the hottest days of the week as high
pressure builds overhead. Afternoon highs will be in the upper
100s to low 110s in most valleys around the Mojave Desert with
overnight lows in the 80s to low 90s. Hot daytime temperatures and
warm nights offering little relief combined with monsoonal
humidity result in Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk for most
areas, with pockets of High (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk including the
Las Vegas Valley both days. There should be some improvement late
week as moisture and precipitation potential increase and
temperatures fall several degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds of less than 10 knots continue
through the night, becoming variable tomorrow morning. Similar
southwesterly winds return in the afternoon, and although speeds
should remain less than 10 knots, a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots
cannot be ruled out. There is a 15 to 30 percent chance of
convection over high terrain in the afternoon and evening, but
activity should remain outside the vicinity of the terminal.
Outside of the valley, thunderstorm activity is once again
expected in the Mormon Mesa and Peach Springs corridors.
Temperatures reach above 100 degrees between 17Z and 06Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect mostly quiet
weather tonight, aside from an low chance of outflow boundaries
from Arizona causing changes in wind direction. Another round of
convection will begin tomorrow afternoon across much of the
region, generally favoring high terrain. Storms should stay out of
the vicinity of most terminals aside from KBIH, but gusty outflow
winds have the potential to reach any terminal in the region.
Outside of storms, winds should generally follow typical daily
patterns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Meltzer


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