950
FXUS65 KVEF 102323 RRA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
323 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected
  across the region through the middle of the week.

* A trough of low pressure will bring gusty winds, much cooler
  temperatures, and increased precipitation chances to the region
  late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.
High pressure will remain parked over the Desert Southwest through
Tuesday keeping temperatures about 8-10 degrees above normal along
with light winds, and overall low impact weather.

A significant change in the pattern will occur during the second
half of the week as a cold trough of low pressure approaches the
west coast. Starting Wednesday, we will see an increase in the
southwest flow with generally breezy conditions developing across
Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye Counties with only a slight
increase in winds elsewhere. By Wednesday night, the trough is
expected to deepen off the California coast and tap into some very
moist air with PWATs about 150%-200% of normal. Precipitation will
spread into northern and central California Wednesday night and into
the southern Sierra by early Thursday morning. Initially snow levels
in the Sierra will start above 8000ft, but will fall to around
7000ft by Thursday afternoon. The best chances for impactful snow
will be above 7000ft where there are high probabilities for moderate
snow impacts on WPC`s Probabilistic WSSI. In coordination with
surrounding offices, have decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for
the Eastern Sierra from 4AM Thursday until 10AM Friday. The heaviest
snow is expected to fall Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Snowfall probabilities between 7000-9000 feet are ranging from about
6-14 inches and 14-21 inches above 9000 feet by Friday morning. With
plenty of moisture available along with a good overall trajectory
for this moisture plume, we could see moderate to heavy rain in the
Owens Valley Thursday afternoon into Friday morning with rainfall
amounts between 0.50"-1.00" possible. Amounts generally less than a
quarter inch will be possible across Death Valley National Park.
Precipitation should begin to taper off during the day Friday with
snow levels falling to as low as 5000 feet, but any accumulations at
that elevation is less than 20%.

Gusty southwest winds are likely Thursday and Friday as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of the trough axis, with widespread wind
gusts over 40 MPH on Thursday, then lingering on Friday in parts of
the Western Mojave Desert into the Colorado River Valley.

Precipitation will then spread across the Great Basin and Mojave
Desert Thursday night and Friday, but overall rainfall amounts will
remain less than 0.25". Las Vegas has about a 40% chance of seeing a
tenth of an inch and a 10-15% chance of seeing a quarter of an inch.
Due to the southwest flow and warmer air, snow impacts in the Spring
Mountains will remain minor with snow levels generally remaining
above 8000 feet where accumulations 2-5 inches will be possible. If
the current track of the GFS and EC ensembles holds which brings the
closed low over southern Nevada and southeast CA, we could see areas
of small hail Friday afternoon.

Finally, a sharp cool down is expected as the trough moves in with
high temperatures falling about 10 to 15 degrees from Thursday to
Friday and remaining below normal through the weekend.

&&

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light
winds under 8 knots, favoring typical diurnal directions, are
expected through Tuesday. Easterly winds late this afternoon will
transition to a westerly direction around sunset and remain
southwesterly through the night. Easterly winds will redevelop by
late morning Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period, with mostly clear skies into tonight, then increasing high
clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL late tonight and Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds are expected to
remain light and follow typical diurnal directional trends through
the TAF period. High clouds will spread across the region overnight
and Tuesday morning from west to east, with bases generally
remaining AOA 20kft AGL, although a few with bases down to around
15kft AGL are possible along the eastern slopes of the Sierra by
Tuesday afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Planz

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter