802
FXUS65 KVEF 140935
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
135 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An approaching weather system will bring Sierra snow and valley
  rain through the morning and early-afternoon today as temperatures
  drop 6 to 10 degrees across the region.

* Impacts increase through the weekend with an additional drop in
  temperatures, a drop in snow levels, and widespread precipitation
  chances.

* Active weather pattern continues through next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

Light mountain snow and valley rain can be seen spreading
northeastward across our forecast area this morning. Radar
reflectivities range from 30 to 40 dBZ, with only sporadic gauge
tips of 0.01 to 0.04 inches observed across San Bernardino and Clark
counties so far. This moisture will continue to spread across the
forecast area through the morning and early-afternoon, with forecast
rainfall amounts between 0.04 and 0.20 inches across Inyo and San
Bernardino counties in California & Esmeralda, southern Nye, western
Lincoln, and western Clark counties in Nevada. With snow levels
between 9500 and 10,000 feet, the Winter Weather Advisory for the
eastern Sierra Slopes will continue until 10 AM PST, with new snow
accumulations primarily near the crest. Precipitation will become
more isolated in-nature as we progress through the afternoon, with
many areas seeing a very brief break in rainfall around sunset. With
this first push of moisture, afternoon high temperatures today will
range 6 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

The closed low responsible for this active weather will push into
the Desert Southwest this weekend. The associated moisture plume
will wrap counter-clockwise around the center of the low, allowing
it to wrap around the Sierra Nevada, and push north-northwestward up
the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert. This moisture
trajectory is certain to bring measurable rainfall to the region, as
rain shadowing will be minimal. Forecast precipitation totals with
this event are tricky, though, as the system will result in a shift
from stratiform-type rain Saturday morning to showery / convective-
type rain through the afternoon. Meaning, particularly across
southeastern California and southwestern Nevada, rain will tend to
fall with light-to-moderate rain rates late Friday night through
early Saturday afternoon, with late-afternoon rain falling at
moderate-to-heavy rates, with instances of occasional lightning. The
best instability, coupled with the best moisture exists across Inyo
and San Bernardino counties, where a Flood Watch remains in effect
from 4 AM PST Saturday morning through 4 AM PST Sunday morning. Snow
levels drop only modestly to between 8500 and 9000 feet, confining
additional snowfall accumulations to the peaks of the Sierra and
Spring Mountains. Afternoon high temperatures will drop another 6 to
10 degrees between today and Saturday, securing the region in below-
normal temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period.

An active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and valley rain. Stay tuned to the forecast if you
have travel or outdoor recreation plans.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Light and generally variable winds under 8KT are expected through
the forecast period. SCT-BKN clouds between 10-15kft are expected
through mid morning, with flight conditions deteriorating
thereafter as ceilings drop to 8-10kft, becoming BKN-OVC as
showers move into higher terrain surrounding the Valley. There is
uncertainty regarding showers that could move off of the terrain
and impact the terminal, though if this occurs, ceilings may
briefly dip below 8kft. Early to mid evening, precipitation is
expected to taper off until beyond the end of the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds around 5-10KT following typical diurnal directional patterns
with some variability are expected the next 24 hours. The
exception will be the northern Owens Valley and southwestern Great
Basin, including BIH, where gusty south-southeasterly winds to
20-25KT are expected through the forecast period. Increasing low
and mid- level clouds are expected late tonight through Friday,
coincident with showers overspreading southeastern California and
southern Nevada. The highest probability for impactful rain
through Friday will be across southeastern California, including
BIH and DAG. Ceilings across much of the area will remain between
10-15kft, decreasing to 6-8kft across the western Mojave, Owens
Valley, and southern Nevada as showers move in through Friday. A
lull is expected for most of the area Friday evening, with
lingering showers mainly across the western Mojave, Owens Valley,
and Sierra.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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