034
FXUS65 KVEF 221159
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
459 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures continue through next week.

* Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best
  chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

Ensemble guidance keeps the ridge of high pressure centered
generally over southern NM through the forecast period. Any
"cooling" that would otherwise result from subtle height falls will
largely be offset by increased vertical mixing thanks to the
southwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures remain fairly steady
with just a subtle cooldown possible Monday and Tuesday as moisture
tries to creep back into the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest
forecast has highs 2-8 degrees above normal, with the greatest
anomalies across the eastern half of the area (closer to the high).
Overnight lows remain relatively oppressive across the Mojave Desert
as values range from 80-92 degrees. This keeps major heatrisk in
Death Valley, the Las Vegas Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and
southern Mohave County through Sunday. After the subtle reprieve on
Monday-Tuesday, major to extreme heatrisk looks to return to these
locations.

A shortwave moving into the PacNW will reshape the ridge, resulting
in a transition from southerly to more southwesterly flow overhead.
This will reduce moisture across most of the CWA and promote more
isolated convective activity through the weekend. Best chances (10-
20%) across the southern Great Basin and northwestern AZ. An influx
of moisture early next week may spur increased coverage across our
southeastern areas, but uncertainty remains. From mid-week and
beyond, moisture drops back down and stays at modest levels, at best
promoting isolated storm chances in northwestern AZ. Given the
limited moisture, main concerns with any convection will be gusty
outflow winds and dry lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
will become variable early this morning, with a brief
southeasterly shift mid- to late morning with intermittent gusts
to 12-15KT expected. Through early afternoon, winds veer to the
southwest, increasing to 10-12KT with gusts to around 20KT through
sunset. Gusts diminish thereafter, with winds remaining southerly
to southwesterly through the end of the period. VFR conditions
will continue with no operationally significant cloud cover
expected. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees from 18Z-03Z,
reaching a high of 108 degrees this afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light and variable
winds this morning will veer to the south-southwest by early
afternoon with gusts to around 20KT common. Gusts will diminish
after sunset, with winds becoming lighter and settling out of
typical patterns overnight. An exception to this includes across
the western Mojave Desert/KDAG, where winds generally remain
westerly, with gusts to around 25KT expected from late afternoon
into tonight, as well as the northern Owens Valley/KBIH, where
gusty up-valley winds will shift to the west around sunset.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, mainly over the higher
terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona,
with gusty outflow winds and lightning strikes the main concerns.
Confidence in any direct impacts at area terminals remains low at
this time. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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