809
FXUS65 KVEF 061121
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
420 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated convection will be possible across the higher
terrain of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, the Mojave
Preserve, and Sierra this afternoon. With moisture beginning to
decrease as a ridge pushes into the area from the south, the
coverage and intensity of these storms will be less than what we
experienced on Thursday. This drying trend will continue through
the weekend and will be accompanied by a warming trend, which will
continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today.

The anomalous moisture that fueled this week`s multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will begin to slowly decrease as a ridge
begins to push into the area from the south today. While there will
be less available moisture in the area today compared to the past
few days, there will be slightly above normal moisture across
southern Nevada and into northwest Arizona. The additional heating
from rising 500 mb heights will provide enough instability for
showers and thunderstorms to pop up in the higher terrain of
southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this afternoon. Storms will
also be possible across the higher terrain of the Mojave Preserve
and in the eastern Sierra. Today`s storm coverage and intensity will
be less than yesterday`s, diminishing with the loss of daytime
heating after sunset. Erratic gusty outflow winds, frequent
lightning, and locally moderate-to-heavy rain will be possible with
any storms that develop.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday.

A return to a more typical hot and dry pattern is expected this
weekend through next week, as a substantial warming and drying trend
begins Saturday. Ensembles and cluster analyses remain in good
agreement regarding the evolution of the upper pattern, with ridging
developing over the region this weekend through Tuesday, ahead of a
shift to southwesterly flow aloft as a trough drops southward along
the West Coast of British Columbia and into the Pacific Northwest
midweek. The aforementioned ridging and associated increasing
thicknesses will see temperatures soar well above normal, with
widespread highs in the 90s and 100s expected Saturday, and highs
climbing another degree or two each day through Monday. Monday
continues to look to be the hottest day of the forecast, when
Moderate to Major HeatRisk expand across most of the lower
elevations, and a return to Extreme HeatRisk is possible in portions
of Death Valley and the Lower Colorado River Valley. While
temperatures peak Monday and linger into Tuesday, ensemble spread
increases Wednesday and Thursday given the trough over the Pacific
Northwest and how that will impact the upper pattern. Currently, all
indications are that this trough will not make much eastward
progress, with the broad, high-amplitude ridge over the central
CONUS expected to reassert itself westward, maintaining
southwesterly flow over the region. These details are likely to
change, however, but confidence is high in the hot and dry
conditions persisting at least through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again after
18Z today. However, coverage is expected to be less than yesterday
and remain mainly over the higher terrain surrounding the valley.
Storms are also possible across the Mojave Desert and could result
in impacts along the Barstow corridor.  Brief gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and lightning will be the primary concerns with this
activity.  Outside of convective influences, winds should be
relatively light with sustained speeds remaining less than 10 knots.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop after 18Z across southern
Nevada, northwest Arizona, and far eastern California. However,
coverage and intensity levels are expected to be less than what was
seen across the area yesterday.  Away from convective activity,
winds should remain light to moderate with speeds generally
remaining 12 knots or less and FEW to SCT skies with bases AOA 10kft
AGL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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