515
FXUS65 KVEF 250340
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
840 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds
  and flash flooding will continue into the evening, with the
  highest risk for thunderstorms and impacts in Inyo County through
  the Southern Great Basin.

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Monday,
  with similar conditions to today but potentially higher
  thunderstorm areal-coverage.

* Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  middle of the week, with Tuesday potentially being the peak in
  thunderstorm coverage and impacts. It will then dry out as we
  head into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Saturday

With a moist atmosphere and ample sunshine to allow for
destabilization- scattered thunderstorms developed across the region
late this morning. Development is expected to continue through the
afternoon with convection favoring the terrain at first. Later this
afternoon, outflow boundaries may allow for additional thunderstorm
development away from terrain. The highest coverage of thunderstorms
should be in the Sierra into northern Inyo and Esmeralda as upslope
flow and a weak piece of energy shifts through the area. With at
least 1.00in PWATs across the region- heavy rain and flash flooding
is possible, especially with nay storms that anchor and train over
terrain. DCAPE will remain over 1500 J/Kg in most location, and the
12Z Las Vegas sounding shows dry low levels as well as some dry air
in the mid levels, so sudden gusty winds over 40 MPH will also be
possible with any storms today. HREF is highlighting probabilities
for sudden gusty winds in the lower Colorado River Valley through
the evening, boaters should be prepared for changing weather
conditions and gusty winds.

After a lull in convection tonight, addition showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop on Monday.  The heavy rain and
flash flood threat may be lower on Monday compared to today as a bit
of dry air moves into the area, whoever with a weak shortwave and
cooler temperatures aloft moving in as well there will still be some
threat. Thus- conditions on Monday are expected to be fairly similar
to today as HiRes models though coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
may be more widespread than today.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the middle
of the week as our anomalous monsoonal moisture sticks around. A
weak shortwave trough will approach the coast of California on
Tuesday, providing additional lift to help fuel showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble members continue to
highlight Tuesday as the day with the best chances for widespread
convection with showers and thunderstorm activity lingering into
Wednesday and potentially Thursday for portions of the area. Hazards
with these mid-week storms will be similar to today and tomorrow`s
convective hazards. Eventually the dry southwesterly flow aloft
resulting from this shortwave will scour moisture from the area with
things drying out as we head into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Thunderstorm chances have ended for this evening, but the
threat of a wind shift will still be possible through midnight as
the potential for outflow boundaries from distant storms still
exists. Outside of any boundary, winds will remain less than 8kts
overnight. Compared to today, expecting higher thunderstorm coverage
as well and a higher chance for thunderstorms over the terminal on
Monday. Other than sudden gusty winds- any storms today and Monday
could result in heavy rain, lightning, and CIGs to 10kft. Outside of
thunderstorm influences, winds Monday afternoon should favor the
east or southeast around 8kts. Temperatures are forecast remain just
below 100 degrees Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible through 07z before dissipating
overnight, with the highest threat to both KEED and KIFP. Gusty
outflow winds to 30kts will be possible near any storm. Otherwise,
winds will generally remain under 10kts. On Monday, showers are
possible in the Colorado River Valley as early as 15Z, then more
showers and thunderstorms are expected across region on Monday
afternoon. Expecting more widespread coverage in Inyo and Southern
Nevada on Monday compared to today. Storms could produce sudden
gusty erratic winds, CIGs to 8kft-10kft, lightning, and heavy rain.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds should follow typical patterns with
speeds to around 10kts with prevailing VFR conditions through
tonight, with south to southeast winds at 8-10KT develop across the
area on Monday. Looking ahead- The threat of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the region each day through at
least Wednesday, with the most coverage expected on Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow


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