291
FXUS65 KVEF 221658
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
958 AM PDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today will be the warmest day of the week with
temperatures gradually decreasing each day through Friday. Breezy
southwesterly winds will pick up across the area on Wednesday and
Thursday as a shortwave rolls through the Great Basin. Our next
impactful system will arrive over the weekend, bringing gusty
winds and cooler than normal temperatures to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...Current temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees warmer compared to
this time yesterday. Today`s highs are on track to be the warmest of
the week, including the upper 80s in Las Vegas and low 90s along the
Colorado River. Satellite imagery shows a few high clouds drifting
over the southern Great Basin. Cloud cover should increase through
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday.

Today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures topping
out around 3 to 8 degrees warmer than normal. Temperatures will
decrease a few degrees each day on Wednesday and Thursday as a
shortwave rolls through the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin,
resulting in falling heights across southern Nevada, southeast
California, and northwest Arizona. In addition to a gradual decrease
in temperatures, we will also see breezy southwesterly winds pick
up across the region in response to a tightening surface pressure
gradient. Dry conditions will persist through the end of the work
week as any precipitation associated with this shortwave will
remain to the north of our forecast area.


.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday.

Heading into the weekend, we continue to watch the evolution of a
weather system as it pushes into the northwestern United States.
Guidance is coming together somewhat regarding the broad
characteristics of the low, but there remains quite a spread
regarding details of the low such as its strength, moisture
content, trajectory, and timing. Solutions are starting to favor a
closed low upon moving inland, with the ECMWF means indicating a
negatively- tilted trough will extend southward through our
forecast area as this occurs. Moisture increases to 120-150
percent of normal (normal being around 0.30" for this time of
year).

As the trough axis pushes through the forecast area, expect gusty
southwest winds to pick up on Saturday, followed by gusty northwest
winds on Sunday. Will continue to consider the need for wind
headlines as we get closer. In addition to gusty winds, temperatures
will drop back below-normal, with high temperatures in the 70s for
Las Vegas heading into the next work week. Mentionable PoPs continue
to remain confined to the southern Great Basin, with 10-20% PoPs
reaching as far south as northern Inyo, northern Esmeralda, northern
Nye, and northern Lincoln counties Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Breezy south to southwest winds will develop later this
afternoon. The best chance for breezy winds will be around 00Z when
there is a 50% chance for wind speeds over 10KT and a 20% chance for
gusts over 20KT. There is a chance for southeast winds to develop
before the south-southwest winds, is this were to occur it would be
after 21Z with wind speeds at 8-10KT. Isolated gusts to around 15KT
are possible with the southeast winds if they develop, but should
not be prevailing. Winds will diminish after sunset with south winds
at 8KT or less expected overnight through Wednesday morning.
Southwest winds will increase again Wednesday late morning with
slightly stronger winds expected Wednesday afternoon with a 60%
chance for gusts over 20KT. CIGs will remain at 15kft or above, with
increasing clouds expected tonight into Wednesday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy south to
southwest winds will develop across the region this afternoon, with
widespread 15-25KT gusts expected. KBIH may see another west push
this afternoon around 00Z with winds over 10KT and gusts over 20KT
possible in this occurs. The strongest winds today will be around
KDAG by 00Z as west winds will gust up to 25KT for a few hours this
evening. Winds will diminish after sunset and should follow general
wind patterns through the night. Southwest to west winds will
increase again late Wednesday morning with slightly stronger gusts
to 20-30KT possible Wednesday afternoon across the region. No
operationally significant clouds or weather expected as CIGs remain
at 15kft or higher.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meltzer
SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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