680
FXUS65 KVEF 152351
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
350 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, and very high elevation
  snow will continue through tonight as a strong storm system
  moves through, with shower chances lingering into tomorrow.

* A cooler storm system will bring renewed rain and mountain
  accumulations to the region Monday and Tuesday.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with
  another storm system expected late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Large closed low off the coast of Southern California continues to
stream deep moisture northward into the region, largely bypassing
the rainshadow effects of the regional terrain. Precipitation
amounts thus far have been generally light to moderate, with
the heaviest rainfall focused across the Spring Mountains and
southern Sierra Nevada region, both of which are being favorably
influenced by the easterly upslope component of the wind flow,
helping to wring out moisture on the eastern facing slopes.
Rainfall will continue across the region through this evening,
and given the strong forcing with the incoming shortwave and some
modest cooling aloft, a few embedded thunderstorms may form as
well as the heaviest activity moves through. Meanwhile, snow
levels have remained quite high - generally near 10,000 feet, but
will begin to descend tonight as cooler air aloft moves in,
falling to 6500-7000 feet by Sunday morning with some light and
slushy accumulations possible above those elevations. Drier
conditions are expected Sunday but the trough axis will remain
overhead, promoting upslope enhanced shower activity and some
light afternoon showers across the southern Great Basin.

The next storm in the series will approach the region Monday with
the trough axis swinging through on Tuesday. This storm will
bring another shot of widespread rainfall, as well as the
potential for greater winter impacts to the higher terrain as it
will be accompanied by snow levels in the 5500-6500 foot range.
Advisory level snow totals look probable across the Sierra and
Spring Mountains ranges, and some minor impacts may impact the
White Mountains as well.

After a brief break Wednesday, yet another storm system will
approach the region Thursday and Friday. There is a great deal of
uncertainty with this final storm, and there are some hints among
ensemble guidance this storm may trend further west and south
which could minimize the impacts to our region, but continues to
bear watching. Thereafter, ridging looks to build across the West
over the weekend allowing for a break in the active storm pattern
with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Low
ceilings and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main
forecast concerns into this evening. Rain, moderate at times, will
persist through at least 03Z. With this rain, CIGs may fall into
MVFR range, potentially as low as 2kft AGL, and visibilities could
decrease to around 2-3SM at times through mid-evening. Some
improvement is expected by late evening as shower activity becomes
more scattered and CIGs lift to around 7kft AGL. Additional showers
are possible after 18Z, though these should be more isolated and
less impactful. Southwest winds are also expected to increase late
Sunday morning, with gusts to around 20 knots possible by midday,
continuing through the afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Low ceilings and reduced
visibilities due to moderate rainfall will be the main forecast
concerns into tonight. Rain will continue through the late
afternoon, with the heaviest precipitation expected through 03Z.
Terrain obscurations are expected, along with the potential for CIGs
to fall as low as 2kft AGL along the eastern Sierra slopes and
around 2-4kft AGL elsewhere in areas of heavier rain. Winds will
generally remain light and somewhat variable into this evening
before south to southwest winds develop as the rain diminishes from
southwest to northeast overnight. Additional showers are expected
Sunday, although coverage should be less than what was seen today.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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