251
FXUS65 KVEF 110701
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1155 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Well above normal temperatures continue Friday, then temperatures
   drop 5-10 degrees this weekend.

*  Isolated convection possible in Northern Mojave and Lincoln
   Counties Friday.

*  Breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts expected across the
   region Friday through the weekend. With reduced humidities
   leading to fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Early Next Week

While Thursday will likely have been the hottest day of the week,
well above normal temperatures continue Friday before temperatures
cool down this weekend by 5-10 degrees. A hot airmass is currently
in place across the region with 850mb temperature anomalies well
above normal for this time of year, supporting highs at or above 100
in desert valleys and in the CRV. The strong ridge which built in
overhead earlier in the week is showing signs of breaking down as a
trough pushes into the PNW. By Friday, the 500mb high shifts
southeast into AZ, then continues eastward through the weekend
becoming centered over Southern New Mexico while the PNW trough
pushes inland. Influence from the incoming trough, lowering upper
heights, and strong subsidence shifting out of the region should all
result in cooling surface temperatures across the Mojave Desert and
Great Basin. Low and mid level temperature anomalies still remain
above normal for this time of year, so still expect daily highs and
lows above normal as well...but not at the levels seen this past
week. Lingering monsoonal moisture will also help keep nighttime
lows elevated the next few days with lows in the 80s likely in
desert valleys, preventing much relief from the heat. By next week,
a persistent troughing pattern looks to set up over the west coast,
keeping southwesterly flow aloft locally and preventing strong
ridging from developing overhead. Medium to long range guidance
keeps low and mid level temperature anomalies and upper level height
anomalies near to slightly above normal for this time of year into
next week. This raises confidence that temperatures will continue to
run above normal by a few degrees for both highs and lows into the
extended period; however with Heat Risk remaining low to moderate,
not expecting dangerous heat conditions to return in this pattern.
Highs generally in the 90s with lows in the 70s can be expected in
desert valleys, the CRV, and death valley in the extended while
cooler temperatures are likely at higher elevations.

As mentioned above, lingering monsoonal moisture still remains in
place for portions of the region just ahead of the trough. Hi-res
guidance shows the potential for scattered convection in portions of
Lincoln and Mohave counties Friday as a weak disturbance passes
through. Added chance wording in the forecast to account for this
threat, but not expecting much impacts from anything that does
develop. Brief periods of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds
possible with any storm that does develop.

The aforementioned trough pushing into the western US will also
increase southwest winds across the region. Guidance continues to
show a 40 kt mid level jet streak developing overhead Saturday into
Sunday. Mixing into this area of stronger winds will result in
widespread gusts mixing down to the surface 30-35 mph. There could
also be some gusty southerly winds impacting Lake Mohave and Lake
Havasu this weekend, which could impact boaters with winds and
waves. Since the low to mid level jet ramps up during the overnight
hours Friday and Saturday night, the strongest winds in the region
may occur in wind prone areas of San Bernardino county with the
nightly westerly push and also at higher elevations across the
region. Looking at today`s Ensembles and NBM probs, all guidance has
kept the threat relatively low for gusts over 40mph. While it does
still look breezy with frequent gusts over 30mph, latest trends
lower confidence in frequent gusts over 40 mph and the possibility
of needing a wind advisory. Still will monitor forecast trends
through the week and will update the forecast accordingly.

This coupled with very dry conditions has increase fire weather
concerns, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for Nye, Esmeralda,
and portions of Lincoln and Clark counties for Saturday. Winds look
to reduce for Sunday but remain breezy. Longer term models are
starting to favor breezy winds peaking around 25 mph each afternoon
into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will follow typical directional patterns overnight, and after a
period of variability through the morning, winds will shift to the
south and southwest by early afternoon. Wind speeds will increase
to 10-15KT with gusts to 20-25KT thereafter through the end of
the forecast period. VFR conditions will prevail with passing
bands of mid-level and high clouds with bases at or above 15kft.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 19Z-02Z, reaching a
high of 106 degrees Friday afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds through Friday
morning will remain around 5-10KT and follow typical directional
patterns. Thereafter through the afternoon and evening, winds
shift to the south and southwest, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts
to around 25KT. Exceptions to this include KBIH in the northern
Owens Valley, where down-valley winds will persist through mid- to
late afternoon before shifting to the west with gusts to 20-25KT
through sunset, and KDAG/the western Mojave Desert where winds
remain westerly through the forecast period with gusts to 20-25KT
through late afternoon, increasing to 30-35KT thereafter through
the evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with passing
bands of clouds with bases at or above 12kft. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon over portions of
Mohave and Lincoln Counties, though direct impacts at area
terminals are not anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 11AM Saturday
through midnight that night for Nye, Esmeralda, and portions of
Lincoln and Clark counties. Concerns include RH ranging from 5 to
15% while winds begin to build above 25 mph and gusts approaching 40
mph. Winds will last deeper into that night, but humidities will
begin to have some recovery by the late that night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Murdock
AVIATION...Phillipson

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