584
FXUS65 KVEF 171119
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
419 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered storms continue for the next several days
  with greatest coverage north and east of Las Vegas.

* Near-normal high temperatures persist with warm overnight lows
  thanks to monsoon moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Monsoonal moisture will linger across the southwest into next week
as ridging persists across the Western US. Precipitable water values
will range from around one inch across the southwestern Great Basin
and Inyo County to 1.25 to 1.75 inches in the southern and eastern
portions of our forecast area. This moisture, combined with daytime
heating under the ridge will help to fuel convection each afternoon
and evening. As is typical during Monsoon Season, showers and
thunderstorms will favor areas of higher terrain for development
especially the higher terrain across northwestern Arizona, southern
Nevada, and eastern San Bernardino County where the best moisture
and orographic lift overlap. Convective coverage will vary day to
day as lingering cloud cover in portions of the area inhibits
daytime heating, limiting instability and lift. Storms may move into
the valleys, but this is far from a guarantee in places like Las
Vegas and the lower Colorado River Valley. Main thunderstorm hazards
will be flash flooding and strong outflow winds, which can travel
far from their parent storm.

Relatively speaking, today will be the "coolest" day of the forecast
period with temperatures topping out a few degrees below normal this
afternoon. Temperatures will climb back up to near normal over the
weekend with seasonal temperatures hanging around into next week.
Overnight temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal thanks
to the lingering moisture and clouds from decaying convection.
Seasonal high temperatures and slightly above normal low
temperatures will result in widespread Minor-to-Moderate HeatRisk
(Levels 1 and 2 of 4) through next week. The exception to this will
be the lower elevations Death Valley, where Major HeatRisk (Level 3
of 4) is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
showery activity east of the valley will continue to diminish early
this morning and is not expected to impact the terminals. Winds
today should be similar to yesterday`s as light east winds increase
out of the south to southeast. Gusts over 20KT expected at times
this afternoon. Chances for convection impacting the terminals is
higher today with scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain, sudden
outflow winds, lightning, and CIGs below 8000ft developing after
20Z. Convection should wind down between 03Z-06Z tonight. Low
confidence in the wind forecast this afternoon as speeds and
direction may depend on convective influences this afternoon.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 19Z to 04Z. Outside of
convection, occasional CIGs around 12kft are expected through the
TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Similar conditions
expected today to yesterday. Outside of convection, expect light
winds increasing out of the south to southeast today. Breezy
southeast winds will develop at KBIH this afternoon with gusts over
20 KT through sunset. KDAG will see gusty west winds developing
around 00Z after light winds much of the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon through
southern Nevada into Arizona. Any storms may contain lightning,
sudden gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs below 8000ft.
Low confidence in thunderstorm chances near the Colorado River
Valley, including KEED and KIFP, no mention in the current TAF but
potential for nearby convection after 21Z through the evening.
Outside of precipitation, CIGs should remain at or above 12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Nickerson

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