811
FXUS65 KVEF 301754
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1055 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated to scattered storms linger, primarily in
  northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin.

* Elsewhere, cooling temperatures and gusty southwest winds will be
  the main story.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Saturday.

High pressure remains centered over New Mexico while a positively
tilted trough sits over the Pacific coast. This pattern will
maintain dry conditions for most of the forecast area. Enough
moisture remains over some of the far eastern sections of the area
to keep 15 to 30 percent POPs in the forecast over high terrain in
northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. Thunderstorm
activity picks up on Monday as a shortwave tracks east through
California and Nevada with decent moisture ahead of it. The current
timing of this feature should limit precipitation to northwestern
Arizona and Lincoln County, but if the feature slows down, chances
may spread further west. Forecast confidence decreases towards the
middle of the week. The GEFS solution still has the Pacific trough
tapping into moisture from tropical storm Karina, then drawing the
moisture towards the southwestern United States. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF still shows a drier solution. Even if the atmospheric moisture
makes it to the forecast area, much of it may stay elevated,
favoring high clouds rather than widespread precipitation. Will
continue to watch over the next few days.

The cooling trend continues as heights aloft lower with the incoming
trough. Today`s highs will be near normal for this time of year,
with highs in the low to mid 100s across the Mojave Desert valleys.
Temperatures bottom out midweek around 5 degrees below normal, which
means highs in the mid 90s to low 100s and lows in the 70s for many
locations. Breezy southwesterly winds will continue with support
from enhanced 850 winds between 30 and 40 knots. Surface wind gusts
reach 35 to 40 mph across much of the Mojave Desert, especially high
terrain in San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon with
occasional gusts to 25 knots likely through sunset. South to
southwest winds will persist overnight, although the gustiness
should subside by late evening. Similar wind patterns are expected
Monday, except the southerly gusts may begin earlier around 16Z. VFR
conditions will prevail through Monday with any cloud bases
remaining 12kft AGL or higher. Any convection in the region will
remain well east of the terminal area. Temperatures may briefly
reach 100F this afternoon, but readings should then remain below
100F through at least midweek.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Outside of the western
Mojave Desert, where winds will favor a more westerly direction
through Monday, southerly to southwesterly winds will be seen across
the region this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be
common through sunset, with lighter winds developing thereafter. VFR
conditions will persist through the TAF period with FEW to SCT high
clouds AOA 10kft AGL passing across the region. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible over far eastern portions of the region
this afternoon, although no convection is expected to directly
impact area terminals.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Planz

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