912
FXUS65 KVEF 050530
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1030 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoonal moisture remains in place today before slowly retreating
  eastward out of the region, shifting the best precipitation
  chances further east each day through Saturday.

* Dry conditions and relatively cooler temperatures are expected
  to return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

Deep moisture is currently in place from the eastern half of San
Bernardino County and across Clark and Mohave counties. PW values
are ranging from 1.25-1.75 inches and little change will take place
with that moisture through tomorrow as the circulation of Tropical
Storm Lorena helps maintain that deep moisture. The direct impacts
from Lorena continue to be much further south and east and not a
factor here. Brief heavy rainfall will be the main concern with
these thunderstorms and although not limited to the higher terrain
the storms will favor the higher terrain. Unlike yesterday the
convection began much earlier around 18Z but is also expected to
diminish earlier, primarily by sunset. The exception is the
potential for a bit more organized area of convection that forms
over Lincoln County and southwest Utah to push its was to the south
and into eastern Clark and northern Mohave County toward midnight.
Several hi-res models bring those storms all the way through Mohave
County through daybreak. At this point it looks like the these
storms will be primarily east of the Las Vegas Valley. Convection on
Friday will favor southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Over the
weekend much drier air will continue to push in from west to east
with the deeper moisture limited from the Colorado River Valley and
points east on Saturday and by Sunday the drier air will sweep into
the entire forecast area, although the EPS does linger the moisture
a bit longer maintaining it through Sunday.

A deep, early season trough along the West Coast by Tuesday will
continue to maintain dry air and also produce lowering heights aloft
which will result in a gradual decrease in temperatures through
Thursday. Highs should be 5 to 10 degrees below average by
Wednesday, which means highs in the low 90s in Las Vegas.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...There is
a risk of thunderstorms moving in from the northeast overnight. The
most likely scenario is for the terminal to see outflow winds, but a
storm at the terminal cannot be ruled out. Quiet weather is likely
to return around sunrise Friday, followed by light easterly winds
developing around mid morning. New thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the mountains in the afternoon, with small chances for
outflow winds and for a storm at or near the terminal. Quiet weather
should return Friday evening. Temperatures expected to remain below
100F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will continue overnight, with the greatest chances in
Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave counties. New thunderstorms are expected
to develop across the region Friday afternoon, mainly over the
mountains. The main threats with thunderstorms will be erratic gusty
winds, heavy rain, and low ceilings with terrain obscuration. Away
from storms, VFR conditions are expected with wind gusts less than
20 knots.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Morgan

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