542
FXUS65 KVEF 211136
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
430 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoonal moisture remains in place over the region, though
  daily storm coverage will tend to decrease late in the week and
  over the weekend.

* Warming temperatures are expected late week through the weekend,
  with widespread Major Heat Risk across the Mojave Desert.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Monday.

We are currently tracking a large area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms over central Arizona working west through the
overnight period. Some of the CAMs are showing at least a few
showers working as far west as southern Nevada after sunrise before
dissipating. If these do hold together, it`s likely they will
produce just some light rain as there really isn`t any significant
instability to work with. By this afternoon, we will once again see
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over
portions of the area with the highest probabilities across Mohave,
Lincoln, central Nye, and northern Inyo counties where the best
instability resides. We could also see a few isolated thunderstorms
over the higher terrain of southern Nevada, but these should once
again be rather isolated as instability remains rather weak. The one
area that will likely see the greatest coverage will be across
northern Inyo County where deep moisture combined with a vort max
pushing through the area should lead to increased afternoon
activity. Like we have seen over the past several days, the greatest
concerns will be for locally heavy rain, flash flooding, and
downburst winds with the strongest storms. A trough over the eastern
Pacific is progged to approach the coast mid-week, potentially
bringing some drier air into the CWA with PWATs dropping closer
to normal for this time of year. It likely won`t completely end
thunderstorm chances, but will likely keep them over the eastern
portions of the CWA at least for several more days.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through midweek, with
a warming trend expected toward the end of the week and through the
weekend. High temperatures will be dependent on how much drying we
see and how much of an influence the Pacific trough has on the
position of the high over the Desert Southwest, but at this point,
it looks like we will see temperatures running about 7 to 10 degrees
above normal. We will continue to observe widespread Minor and
Moderate (Level 1 and 2) Heat Risk each day through midweek, with
more widespread areas of Major (Level 3) and pockets of Extreme
(Level 4) Heat Risk developing Thursday through the weekend. With
increasing confidence on a return of higher impact heat, have gone
ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for Thursday through
Monday for much of the Mojave Desert region. Those who will be
outdoors will need to ensure they stay hydrated and take breaks in
the air conditioning whenever possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
winds generally out of the SE to S continue through the early
morning hours. Took out mention of showers this morning as
confidence is increasing that activity in Arizona dissipate before
reaching the Valley. SE winds increase in the early afternoon to
around 06-10 kts with isolated gusts to 16 kts at times. Thinking
today that winds hold onto a SE direction through the afternoon with
a later shift to S-SSW occuring near or after 23z. Probability of
thunderstorms impacting the terminal is less than 20%, but outflow
boundaries late afternoon and evening are possible and could
potentially bring shifting winds into the valley. Added VCSH 20z-03z
to account for a possible shower in the vicinity, but based on
trends this week, chances are fairly low of convection near the
terminal. Normal daily wind pattern likely to continue tomorrow
night with winds and gusts diminishing after sunset. Temperatures
will climb above 100F after 18z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds persist this
morning at TAF sites around the region with KDAG being the exception
out of the WNW at 10 kts. Barring convective influences, daily wind
patterns expected at all sites today with sporadic gusts 15+ kts
expected in the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms
possible across Clark, Lincoln, Nye, and northern Inyo counties this
afternoon with the greatest threat (30-40%) occurring near KBIH. SCT-
BKN clouds at or above 10kft across most of the region.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Outler
AVIATION...Moore


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