447
FXUS65 KVEF 290538
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
938 PM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooling temperatures and breezy winds persist through Tuesday as
  precipitation chances remain below 10%.

* A midweek system looks poised to move through the region, but
  track uncertainty keeps details murky.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

A northwesterly flow pattern continues into early next week, with 2
systems set to pass by. The first skirts through Utah this evening
and doesn`t do much other than kick up breezy north winds in the
lower Colorado River Valley (gusts 15-25 mph). Temps drop a few
degrees on Saturday, but that just brings us back to seasonable
values. Another "inside slider" system is forecast to drop in Sunday-
Monday. Like its predecessor, the main change in sensible weather
will be an increase in northerly winds, particularly in the lower
Colorado River Valley, on Monday. Minor boating/wind impacts are
possible (30%) in this area. Temps edge a few degrees lower while
dry conditions continue. The only locations with mentionable
precipitation chances Sunday evening are far northern portions of
Lincoln and Mohave counties (10-20%).

By midweek, ensemble guidance brings another trough out of the PacNW
and into the CA/NV region. The main uncertainty surrounds its
movement after dropping into our region. Some members have it
closing/cutting off and meandering near the SoCal coast. This
solution would be more favorable for precipitation chances here.
Conversely, other ensemble members have the trough digging more into
the Four Corners area. This solution would favor drier conditions
and gusty north winds. Given how similar this looks to 5-7 day model
depictions of this weekend`s system, I`d lean (60/40 or 70/30) more
towards the drier and windier solution. As it stands currently, the
NBM has fairly widespread 15-30% PoPs for Wednesday-Thursday,
reflecting the aforementioned uncertainty. As the system approaches
North America this weekend, hopefully the increased radiosonde
sampling will result in high track confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
follow typical, daily patterns with sustained speeds under 10
knots throughout the TAF period. There is a 20 to 30 percent
chance of gusts over 10 knots in the morning. BKN high clouds will
filter through the area during the day.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally
follow typical daily patterns with speeds of under 10 knots. Gusty
northerly winds increase in the Colorado River Valley in the late
morning, lasting through the afternoon. Peak gusts between 15 and 25
knots are possible. SCT to BKN high clouds will filter in through
the day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Meltzer

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