852
FXUS65 KVEF 312145
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures through the
  holiday weekend.

* A mid-week influx of monsoonal moisture brings precipitation
  chances up and temperatures down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.

High pressure is currently in place over the western United States,
which will maintain temperatures a few degrees above average today
and tomorrow. This will result in widespread Moderate with some
isolated areas of Major HeatRisk in certain valleys around the
Mojave Desert, including Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley.
Precipitation is not expected at most locations. Some low and mid
level moisture remains below 500 mb, but dry and stable above 500 mb
should limit shower development. The only location with
precipitation potential today is the eastern Sierra. The presence of
slightly higher moisture and a boost from orographic lift may allow
for isolated shower development near Bishop this afternoon.

An area of low pressure will move inland midweek, which will push
the high eastward and allow monsoonal moisture to advect back into
the region. Low end PoPs return to southern Mohave County as early
as Monday afternoon, but anything that does develop will remain
isolated and generally over the higher terrain. Moisture increases
on Tuesday with improved southeasterly flow. The trajectory seems to
favor eastern California on Tuesday before a shortwave pushes the
moisture east on Wednesday, causing the highest POPs to shift east
into southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and eastern San
Bernardino County. From there, moisture and instability will
continue to increase through the end of the week. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. More specific forecasting
of convection will likely have to be done on a day-by-day basis as
preceding convection and cloud cover will greatly influence the
daily evolution of precipitation chances. Regardless, flash flooding
and strong outflow winds are potential hazards with these storms.
Stay tuned for details with upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds
will follow their typical daily patterns with speeds of less than 10
knots through tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds continue to favor
an easterly to northeasterly direction this afternoon, but brief
periods of light southeasterly or variable winds remain possible.
Southwesterly winds arrive after sunset and northeasterly winds
return tomorrow morning. FEW mid level clouds will develop over high
terrain this afternoon. Temperatures fall to less than 100 degrees
by 03Z, and increase to over 100 degrees by 20Z tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds will follow
typical daily patters through tonight with speeds of 10 knots or
less for most locations. The exception is KBIH, where gusty
southeasterly winds develop remain through sunset. FEW mid level
clouds can be found over high terrain, but should have minimal
impact on aviation. Aside from some showers over the Sierra, the
rest of the forecast area should remain dry. Smoke from the Garnet
Fire on the west side of the Sierra may reach Owens Valley including
KBIH tonight, but confidence is low on how much visibility will drop.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Meltzer


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