Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
671 FXUS65 KVEF 081719 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 919 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet and calm weather expected through the weekend as temperatures warm to seasonal values. The pattern becomes active once again next week as multiple systems bring periods of breezy and cooler conditions. && .UPDATE...Shortwave ridging will build over the Desert Southwest through the weekend bringing increasing temperatures, lighter winds, and clear skies. Still dealing with some gusty winds down the lower Colorado River Valley today, but those winds will gradually diminish later this afternoon with light winds expected over the weekend. No updates need this morning. && PREV DISCUSSION 1225 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SHORT TERM...through the weekend. As our most recent system ejects into the Southern Plains, shortwave ridging begins to build overhead. This results in weakening north winds and a gradual warming trend. Lingering 15-20 mph gusts possible between Laughlin and Needles today, but winds across the rest of the area remain below 15 mph. Tomorrow and Sunday, the entire CWA stays below 15 mph. Temperatures are forecast to warm 2-5 degrees each day, reaching seasonal or slightly above-normal values by Sunday. .LONG TERM...Monday through next week. Ensemble guidance continues to point to a continued progressive pattern as we head into the start of next week. After a quiescent weekend across southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona, a trough is progged to come ashore over northern California and Pacific Northwest. Cluster analyses are in fairly good agreement that this trough will remain a broad open wave, with a southern stream component remaining well to the south off of the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur before becoming absorbed into the mean flow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Closer to home, the aforementioned broad trough will bring an end to the subtle warming trend over the weekend as cooler, windy conditions overspread the region. By Monday, there is a medium to high (40-80%) potential for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph across mountain areas, with greatest potential over the eastern Sierra where there`s a 20-40% probability of gusts exceeding 45 mph. Winds are expected to be weaker across lower elevations, with a southeastward trend in the breezy to windy conditions expected on Tuesday as the trough translates eastward. Currently, the blended solution indicates only a subtle drop in temperatures, though temperature and wind trends will bear watching as they are dependent on both the trough`s speed and amplitude. Precipitation trends are also in question, though currently, only low (10-20%) chances are forecast, and mainly over portions of the eastern Sierra and Esmeralda and northeastern Lincoln counties as the trough moves over the region Monday night. Thereafter, another lull is expected as weak ridging/transitioning quasi-zonal flow is progged to develop before the next system potentially takes aim on the area late next week. This far out, there are fairly substantial differences between ensemble guidance regarding the evolution of the upper pattern and subsequent impacts. However,ensembles indicate the progressive/active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future, characterized by near and below normal temperatures and intermittent breezy to windy conditions. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal wind pattern expected through the TAF period, with southwesterly winds through the early- morning, northeasterly winds late-morning through the afternoon, then returning southwest winds after sunset, with speeds below 8 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light and diurnal wind pattern expected through the TAF period with speeds remaining below 8 kts. The exception will be KEED and KIFP, where persistent north winds will result in sustained speeds between 10 and 15 kts and occasional gusts to 20 kts through the afternoon. No operationally significant cloud cover. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Gorelow SHORT TERM...Woods LONG TERM...Phillipson AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter