196
FXUS65 KVEF 121122
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
422 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Smoke from nearby fires will result in hazy skies at times
  through at least Saturday, but significant or widespread smoke
  impacts near the surface are not expected.

* Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend with
  temperatures peaking Monday as ridging persists across the region.

* Monsoon moisture makes a possible return mid to late next week
  along with a drop in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Hazy skies are expected at times over the next couple of days as
various fires burn across the region combined with generally light
winds aloft. The Gothic Fire located in central Nye County is the
largest fire and has been responsible for the hazy conditions
through much of Southern Nevada the past few days. This should
continue today though the smoke plume is less robust on HRRR smoke
compared to previous days. In addition, new fires in north-central
Arizona may also produce smoke aloft with the HRRR showing smoke
advecting through Mohave County at times tonight and Saturday.
Smoke continues to be aloft with minimal near surface or visibility
reductions noted on the HRRR and probabilistic models.

Above normal temperatures will continue as high pressure will
continue to build over the region through Monday. The hottest days
will be Sunday and Monday when heights reach +1.0 to +1.5 sigmas.
High temperatures will climb 6-8 degrees above normal Sunday and
Monday. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 or 4) HeatRisk is forecasted
this weekend. On Monday, the HeatRisk forecast continues to
fluctuate and now the area of Major (Level 3 of 4) HeatRisk is more
widespread from previous forecasts in the mid to low elevations.
Will continue to monitor temperatures and trends as a heat product
may be needed for Monday.

The ridge will slowly retreat and weaken after Monday. Temperatures
will cool off each day in response starting Tuesday. In addition, on
Tuesday a slight increase in moisture is expected. This moisture
will not result in any precipitation but will help cool temperatures
and also reduce any fire danger due to extremely dry conditions. On
Wednesday, high temperatures will have fallen closer to normal and
expected to remain near normal through the rest of the week. Any
precipitation chance is now not expected until Thursday or later
when better moisture and an weak shortwave could bring low chances
for precipitation. From the previous forecast, late week moisture
increases and precipitation chances have not changed significantly.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The main
concern today will be a period of southeast winds around 8 to 10
knots in the afternoon. A secondary concern will be slantwise
visibility reduction due to smoke from fires in Nevada and Arizona.
The FEW120 group is meant to convey a smoke layer - not water
clouds. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 18 and 05Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Mostly
quiet weather is expected today, with south to southwest winds
gusting 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon. The main concern will be
smoke from fires in Nevada and Arizona, which will reduce slantwise
visibility over much of the region. Smoke will also flatten out into
a cloud layer aloft. Otherwise, few or no clouds expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Morgan

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