808
FXUS65 KVEF 080825
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1225 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet and calm weather expected through the weekend as
temperatures warm to seasonal values. The pattern becomes active
once again next week as multiple systems bring periods of breezy and
cooler conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through the weekend.

As our most recent system ejects into the Southern Plains, shortwave
ridging begins to build overhead. This results in weakening north
winds and a gradual warming trend. Lingering 15-20 mph gusts
possible between Laughlin and Needles today, but winds across the
rest of the area remain below 15 mph. Tomorrow and Sunday, the
entire CWA stays below 15 mph. Temperatures are forecast to warm 2-5
degrees each day, reaching seasonal or slightly above-normal values
by Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next week.

Ensemble guidance continues to point to a continued progressive
pattern as we head into the start of next week. After a quiescent
weekend across southern Nevada, southeastern California, and
northwestern Arizona, a trough is progged to come ashore over
northern California and Pacific Northwest. Cluster analyses are in
fairly good agreement that this trough will remain a broad open
wave, with a southern stream component remaining well to the south
off of the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur before becoming
absorbed into the mean flow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.
Closer to home, the aforementioned broad trough will bring an end to
the subtle warming trend over the weekend as cooler, windy
conditions overspread the region. By Monday, there is a medium to
high (40-80%) potential for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph across
mountain areas, with greatest potential over the eastern Sierra
where there`s a 20-40% probability of gusts exceeding 45 mph. Winds
are expected to be weaker across lower elevations, with a
southeastward trend in the breezy to windy conditions expected on
Tuesday as the trough translates eastward. Currently, the blended
solution indicates only a subtle drop in temperatures, though
temperature and wind trends will bear watching as they are dependent
on both the trough`s speed and amplitude. Precipitation trends are
also in question, though currently, only low (10-20%) chances are
forecast, and mainly over portions of the eastern Sierra and
Esmeralda and northeastern Lincoln counties as the trough moves over
the region Monday night.

Thereafter, another lull is expected as weak ridging/transitioning
quasi-zonal flow is progged to develop before the next system
potentially takes aim on the area late next week. This far out,
there are fairly substantial differences between ensemble guidance
regarding the evolution of the upper pattern and subsequent impacts.
However,ensembles indicate the progressive/active pattern will
continue for the foreseeable future, characterized by near and below
normal temperatures and intermittent breezy to windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal wind pattern expected
through the TAF period, with southwesterly winds through the early-
morning, northeasterly winds late-morning through the afternoon,
then returning southwest winds after sunset, with speeds below 8
kts. No operationally significant cloud cover.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal wind pattern expected
through the TAF period with speeds remaining below 8 kts. The
exception will be KEED and KIFP, where persistent north winds will
result in sustained speeds between 10 and 15 kts and occasional
gusts to 20 kts through the afternoon. No operationally significant
cloud cover.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Soulat

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