502
FXUS65 KVEF 052302
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A brief lull in eastern Sierra snowfall expected today
before the atmospheric river takes aim at central California once
again Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds return
each afternoon heading into the weekend, with the strongest winds on
Friday across the Mojave Desert. Temperatures will gradually
decrease through the forecast period, dropping below normal by the
start of next week.
&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Precipitation in the eastern Sierra and Owens Valley has subsided
this afternoon with clearing skies as we enter a brief lull in
atmospheric river moisture. Gusty southwest winds continue for the
region as we remain sandwiched between a deep closed low to our
north and a Pacific ridge to our south, which has resulted in
increased surface pressure gradients across the Desert Southwest.
Highest winds have been observed across southern Nevada this
afternoon - particularly across the higher terrain - with gusts
between 40 and 50 mph, which is in line with our current Wind
Advisory in effect for the Spring Mountains, western Clark County
and southern Nye County though 10pm tonight.

Over the next few days, the closed low that has been parked off the
Pacific Northwest coast for the last week will split into two
centers of circulation. The eastern center of circulation will
quickly kick eastward across the northern CONUS while the western
center will push counter-clockwise into northern California on
Friday with the help of a reinforcing shortwave in its wake. As this
occurs, pressure gradients over the Great Basin and Mojave Deserts
will continue to tighten, resulting in a return of gusty southwest
winds Thursday and Friday - with Friday`s winds being the strongest
and most widespread. We will continue to assess the magnitude of
Friday`s forecast wind speeds, as widespread Wind Advisories may be
necessary.

Meanwhile, this pattern shift will aim the atmospheric river channel
at central California, resulting in another round of significant
snowfall in the eastern Sierra beginning Thursday afternoon. For
this reason, the Winter Storm Warning for the eastern Sierra slopes
remains in good shape and will continue through Friday afternoon.
Due to the trajectory of the moisture, modest spillover into the
southern Great Basin is likely, with rainfall totals struggling to
exceed 0.10" in the Owens Valley and south-central Nevada.

Temperatures will gradually decrease through the forecast period,
with temperatures dropping below seasonal normals by the start of
next week. Forecast confidence for next week remains low at this
time, but the active weather pattern in place with a northwesterly
flow aloft could result in additional rounds of atmospheric river
moisture reaching the Desert Southwest. Stay tuned to the
forecast.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with gusts to around 25
knots will continue through the afternoon before eventually
decreasing to less than 15 knots this evening.  There is still a 25
percent chance of seeing a gust to 30 knots, although the percent
chance will decrease as the afternoon progresses.   Gusts should end
by 03Z and sustained wind speeds should fall below 10 knots shortly
after midnight.  Similar wind conditions are expected Thursday, with
southwest gusts above 20 knots developing after 18Z.  Besides a few
high clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL this afternoon, mainly clear
skies are expected through tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Conditions at the Vegas Valley TAF sites will be
similar to those described above at Harry Reid. Winds at KBIH will
be light through tonight before increasing above 10 knots with
occasional gusts out of the south after 18Z.  KDAG will continue to
experience gusty westerly winds to 20 knots this afternoon and
evening before falling below 10 knots by daybreak.  West winds will
increase again tomorrow afternoon with gusts to 25 knots possible
after 18Z.  In the lower Colorado River Valley, moderate south-to-
southwest winds will continue through tonight.  Winds on Thursday
are expected to remain around 15 knots at KEED, while at KIFP, winds
will be a bit higher, with gusts to 25 knots possible during the
afternoon. Besides a few high clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL this
afternoon, mainly clear skies are expected at most sites through
tonight.  Clouds will increase along the Sierra tomorrow afternoon,
with SCT to BKN skies with bases as low as 10kft AGL developing in
the Owens Valley after 19Z.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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