081
FXUS65 KVEF 081116
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
416 AM PDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions will continue through the
week with afternoon high temperatures climbing 10 to 15 degrees
above normal daily. Generally light winds are expected aside from
some afternoon breezes. The weather pattern begin to transition
back to more seasonable conditions late in the week with
increasing winds Friday followed by cooling temperatures for the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday.

Low amplitude, dirty ridge pattern today will keep the warming
trend going as heights slowly climb, but scattered high clouds
will persist thanks an active Pacific storm track focused to our
north. The ridge axis will begin to build northward Wednesday
allowing for continued warming and should force cloud cover
further north, allowing for clearing skies across the Mojave
Desert and southern Great Basin. Temperatures today should top out
8 to 12 degrees above normal, with further warming anticipated
for Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday

Temperatures continue to climb on Thursday and Friday as the ridge
builds. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Thursday and
15 to 20 degrees above normal on Friday. Record daily high
temperatures and record warm low temperatures are threatened at some
area climate sites - see the Climate section below for details.
These temperatures will yield widespread Minor (Level 1 of 4)
HeatRisk with pockets of Moderate (Level 2 of 4) HeatRisk along the
Colorado River, Death Valley, and other areas of lower elevation in
the Mojave Desert. This level of heat primarily affects those that
are sensitive to heat, have not had time to acclimate to increased
temperatures, or do not have access to sufficient cooling or
hydration. Remember to stay hydrated and know where to find the
nearest air conditioned space, especially if spending time outdoors.

A significant change in the weather pattern arrives this weekend as
an upper level trough moves into the western United States and the
ridge exits to the east. Model ensembles are starting to agree on
the timing and placement of the trough and spread in NBM output for
winds and temperatures is decreasing. Overall, expect increased
southwesterly winds on Saturday and Sunday as well as cooler
temperatures going into early next week. How strong the winds become
and how much temperatures drop will depend on the speed and depth of
the trough, which should become more apparent in the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds this morning will turn to the southeast after
20Z.  Some guidance continues to indicate the potential for
intermittent southeast gusts between 20Z and 23Z, although the
latest model runs have backed off a bit on this potential.  I kept
the southeast winds in this TAF package but did reduce the magnitude
of the gusts. It is not out of the question that impactful southeast
gusts may not develop.  Winds should turn to the more typical
southwest direction by late afternoon and remain from that direction
through Wednesday morning.  VFR conditions will prevail through
Wednesday with any clouds remaining AOA 20kft AGL.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described for Harry
Reid above, except winds at KHND will remain southerly throughout.
Winds at KBIH may try to turn southerly after 19Z. However, this
push is expected to be weak and included variable winds during this
period.  Northerly winds return by evening.  KDAG will remain
westerly through the period.  Typical diurnal wind patterns are
forecast for the lower Colorado River Valley today, with occasional
gusts to 20 knots possible during the afternoon near KIFP.  VFR
conditions will prevail through Wednesday with any clouds remaining
AOA 20kft AGL.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            THU, APR 10    FRI, APR 11
               Record (Yr)    Record (Yr)

Las Vegas      91 (2014)*     93 (2023)*
Bishop         91 (1989)      86 (2018)*
Needles        103 (1989)     102 (1936)*
Daggett        99 (1989)      93 (2014)*
Kingman        91 (1907)*     96 (1936)
Desert Rock    91 (1989)*     87 (2014)*
Death Valley   110 (1989)     108 (1989)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       THU, APR 10    FRI, APR 11
               Record (Yr)    Record (Yr)

Las Vegas      70 (2002)*     72 (2018)
Bishop         48 (1951)      55 (1989)
Needles        70 (1989)      72 (2014)
Daggett        63 (1989)*     68 (1989)
Kingman        59 (1989)      66 (1989)
Desert Rock    63 (1989)      66 (2018)
Death Valley   80 (1972)      80 (2018)



&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Planz

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