003
FXUS65 KVEF 081908
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1208 PM PDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered storms remain possible over the next several
  days, with best odds in northwestern Arizona and the southern
  Great Basin.

* Dangerous heat continues through the weekend, with widespread
  Moderate-to-Major Heat Risk as a result of warm temperatures and
  increased humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

This morning`s soundings and mesoanalysis indicate a decrease in
moisture, mainly across the Mojave Desert. As a result, expecting
more isolated activity in this area with scattered showers and
storms across northwestern Arizona, the southern Great Basin, and
the Sierra. Drier low-levels and plenty of diurnal heating have
fostered large DCAPE values (1500-2000 J/kg) which will promote
strong downdrafts and outflow winds. Latest HREF guidance paints
northern Lincoln County and eastern Mohave County with 50-70% odds
of 30+ knot outflow and a 10% chance of 50+ knot outflow. Flash
flooding should be less of a threat given the aforementioned
reduction in moisture, but isolated instances are still possible
where storms can train/persist long enough to saturate the low
levels. Similar conditions/hazards expected through Monday, though
convective coverage may spread to our western zones. After Monday,
ensemble guidance indicates an influx of moisture, raising the flash
flood potential.

Meanwhile, temperatures remain above normal through Monday with the
most dangerous heat this weekend. Locations fortunate enough to get
an early afternoon storm may fall short of forecast highs, but
otherwise expecting widespread major heat risk to persist through
Sunday. Latest forecast has pockets of major heat risk lingering on
Monday from Death Valley to Las Vegas. If trends continue, an
extension of heat headlines may be warranted for these zones, but
will wait for more confidence in the convective/cloud cover forecast
before making any decisions. However, there is light at the end of
the tunnel next week as moisture and cloud cover increase, bringing
temperatures down to at least seasonable values, if not lower.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Southerly winds will continue through the afternoon, with occasional
thermally induced gusts to 15 knots becoming possible after 19Z.
Winds are expected to veer southwesterly by evening. Guidance
continues to show the potential for thunderstorm activity to develop
south and east of the Vegas Valley over the McCullough Range after
00Z. While the chance of direct thunderstorm impacts at the field
remains low, occasional gusty south to southeast outflow winds will
be possible between 01Z and 06Z. There is a greater chance for
thunderstorms to impact the southeast approaches late this afternoon
and evening. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Temperatures are expected to remain above
100F through 06Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop again this afternoon and early evening
across the southern Great Basin, northern Owens Valley, and
northwest Arizona, with most storms confined to the higher terrain.
Gusty, erratic outflow winds will be possible near this activity, as
well as CIGs lowering to around 8kft to 10kft AGL and surface
visibilities below 5SM in areas of heavy rain. Away from convection,
winds should generally remain south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots
through the TAF period, with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees
of the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SAT, AUG 8   SUN, AUG 9
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)
Las Vegas     114(1978)*   114(1940)*
Bishop        107(1981)*   107(1981)
Needles       118(2025)*   117(2004)
Daggett       112(2012)*   113(1980)*
Kingman       107(1915)*   108(1940)
Desert Rock   109(1978)*   109(2012)*
Death Valley  125(1978)*   125(2012)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      SAT, AUG 8   SUN, AUG 9
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)
Las Vegas     88(2025)*    87(2025)*
Bishop        68(2024)     65(2022)
Needles       93(2022)*    92(1902)
Daggett       85(1978)     82(2024)*
Kingman       79(2025)*    79(2003)*
Desert Rock   83(1994)     81(2012)*
Death Valley  101(1920)*   100(2024)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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