047
FXUS65 KVEF 021656
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1000 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures continue through
  the weekend and into the start of next week.

* Potential for a monsoonal moisture surge midweek, with above-
  normal temperatures mid-to-late week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

Conditions remain largely dry across the forecast area, with the
persistent, dry southwesterly flow aloft. Expect sunny skies,
seasonal temperatures, and afternoon south-southwesterly breezes
through the remainder of the weekend into the start of the work week.

Monday and Tuesday, an incoming trough will deamplify the southern
CONUS / northern Mexico ridge of high pressure, which will shift the
center of the high further east. This will allow moisture to once
again creep up the Colorado River Valley, with forecast ECMWF
ensemble PWATs peaking on Wednesday from Laughlin / Bullhead City to
Las Vegas to 0.75 - 1.00". At present, NBM PoPs remain very slight
(5-15%) and isolated to eastern Mohave County Wednesday through
Friday. Meanwhile, despite the moisture surge, heights aloft rebound
midweek with the aforementioned building high. Individual ensemble
members are fairly consistent with Las Vegas observing 110-111
degrees on Thursday and the NBM has a similar solution, with a
spread of 1 degree (110 to 111) between the 25th and 75th percentile
for max temperatures. Depending on the amount of monsoonal moisture
that makes it into our forecast area, cloud cover and/or
precipitation chances may hinder chances of temperatures reaching
such high values... the alternative solution is a muggy above-normal
day ahead. "Major" HeatRisk has expanded to include southern Clark
and southern San Bernardino in addition to the Colorado River Valley
and southern Mohave County on Thursday, with a scattering of
"Extreme". Will continue to assess the magnitude of the moisture
resurgence midweek and the need for heat-related headlines late-week
as we move through the weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South-
southwest breezes continue, strongest in the afternoon and evening
hours. Gusts generally 20-25 knots, with a 25% chance of peak gusts
~30 knots. Winds subside after sunset, but retain the southwest
direction through the night. Temperatures to exceed 100F between 19z
and 03z, with a high around 105F under clear skies. Pockets of
lofted smoke can be expected across the airspace with ongoing fires
in Southern California but no surface visibility reduction is
expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light winds
this morning give way to southerly/westerly breezes again today.
Gusts generally 15-25 knots in the afternoon and evening hours.
Winds subside after sunset except in the KDAG area where they`ll
remain elevated into the night. VFR conditions under clear skies.
Pockets of lofted smoke can be expected across the airspace with
ongoing fires in Southern California but no surface visibility
reduction is expected. &&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods/Outler

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