505
FXUS65 KVEF 241133
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
433 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week.

* Best chance of storms along and south of I-15 today, with
  diminishing odds afterwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through the weekend.

A slight cooldown is anticipated today and Tuesday thanks to a
subtle uptick in moisture and fall in 500mb heights. Highs during
this time are forecast to be 1-5 degrees cooler than yesterday
(largest cooldown across the southeastern half of the CWA), but
still above normal for late August. From Wednesday through
Friday, ensemble guidance suggests an uptick in 500mb heights and
southwesterly flow, the latter yielding a gradual reduction of
moisture. The net effect of these changes is warming at the
surface, with highs returning to values 3-8 degrees above normal.
Combined with oppressive overnight lows, major to extreme heatrisk
resumes across most of the Mojave Desert. Over the weekend (and
into early next week), ensembles depict a broader trough
approaching the western US, leading to cooler temperatures and
increased breezes.

Overnight radar and satellite imagery shows a complex of storms in
southern AZ pushing our way. Convection should wane before it
reaches our area, but the southerly outflow will advect in
additional moisture through the early morning hours. Latest HREF
shows the 1" PWAT contour extending up to the I-15 corridor this
afternoon, which should allow isolated to scattered storms in this
area. Main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and dry
lightning, but cannot rule out isolated instances of flash
flooding. Moisture should then gradually decrease throughout the
week, leading to more isolated and weaker activity.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...At
issuance, an outflow boundary from storms in Arizona is moving
northwestward, expected to result in a southeasterly wind shift at
the terminal early in the period. Southeasterly winds around
8-10KT are expected to persist through late morning, then veer to
the southwest. Outside of convective influences, winds will be
similar to yesterday, with speeds 12-15KT and gusts to 20-25KT
through sunset. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain to the east and
south of the Valley with potential outflow impacts at the
terminal, thus there is moderate confidence in the wind forecast.
Outflow will remain a concern through the evening, with winds
expected to become light and variable overnight. VFR conditions
will prevail with FEW-SCT clouds with bases at or above 12kft.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees today from 18Z-02Z, with a
high of 107 degrees.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly to
southeasterly winds have developed through the Lower Colorado
River Valley and across NW Arizona early in the period due to
outflow, with southeasterly winds expected to develop in the Las
Vegas Valley early in the period. This afternoon, winds will shift
to the south and southwest, with speeds 10-15KT and gusts 20-25KT
common, outside of convective influences. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly along and
south/east of I-15, with higher confidence over northwestern
Arizona and potential impacts at KIFP/KEED. Outflow will remain a
concern through the evening elsewhere, and trends will be
monitored. At KDAG/across the western Mojave Desert, winds will
generally remain around 10-15KT, veering throughout the day. In
the northern Owens Valley/KBIH, gusty up-valley winds veer to the
southwest late afternoon before shifting north in the evening. VFR
conditions prevail, with FEW-SCT clouds at or above 10kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter