Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
268 FXUS65 KVEF 091951 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1151 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A broad shortwave ridge continues to build across the Desert Southwest, resulting in beautiful Fall weather conditions. Light winds, seasonably mild temperatures, and clear skies will generally be the rule through the weekend, with no real impacts to speak of. && .SHORT TERM...Through Sunday... With upper ridging in control, very pleasant conditions are foreast through the remainder of the week. Winds will remain quite light with only a few passing high clouds. Temperatures to run near or just above seasonal normals, making for exceptional weather for recreating. The only potential impact will stem from the ongoing Happy Fire in California, which may bring some high- elevation smoke to portions of Inyo and Esmeralda counties. This will be more noticable overnight as mixing decreases and smoke becomes trapped. Even if smoke materializes, impacts should be quite minimal. .LONG TERM...This Week... A rather substantial pattern change is noted in the ensemble guidance as flow becomes more progressive and a series of storm systems move across the Western U.S. The first will emerge as an open wave moving across California and toward the Four Corners region by midweek. This will result in a period of breezy/gusty west/southwest winds and a bit of a cooldown as compared to this weekend. Per the NBM, most areas will see at least sub-advisory level wind gusts of 30-40 mph (50-70%), including the Las Vegas Valley Monday into Monday Night. Given the west/southwest flow, odds of stronger gusts will generally be limited to the higher terrain, especially the Sierra, and adjacent Owens Valley, where some downsloping may occur. This is where wind gusts of 40-55 mph will be most probable (60-80%). Some light snow will likely affect the Sierra and nearby White Mountians as this system moves through. Light accumulations of 1-3 inches can be expected above 7000 ft. A modest reinforcing shot of cooler air will knock maximum temperatures back 5-10 degrees by Tuesday, but things look to rebound rather quickly as ridging gradually builds in again. Beyond Wednesday, confidence is quite high that another upper trough will begin to dig south and east off the West Coast. There remains considerable uncertaintny, however, on just how intense/deep the low will become, and how quickly it will progress eastward. Ensembles have trended slightly slower with this feature over the last 24 hours, and it would make sense if the system winds up being a stronger one. Downstream ridging will likely yield a few days of warming temperatures from Wednesday on through Friday. As we get into next weekend, ensembles are quite insistent on the arrival of cloudier, breezier, and cooler conditions, though this will all depend on the timinig and intensity of the late week storm system. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal wind pattern expected through the weekend, with light south to southwest winds in the nights and mornings and light easterly winds in the afternoons. No operationally significant cloud cover. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds less than 15 knots are expected areawide through Sunday. Westerly winds could increase over the Sierra crest as early as Sunday night. No operationally significant cloud cover. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Austin AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter