628
FXUS65 KVEF 050221
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
717 PM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited to
eastern Mohave County this afternoon as the weather system moves
east. By Saturday, precipitation chances end area-wide and it will
remain dry into next week as a ridge builds into the region. The
main concern today and Saturday is gusty northerly winds,
especially along the Colorado River. Temperatures will warm today
through next week, with above normal temperatures expected by
Sunday through next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Latest radar and satellite imagery showing all the showers
that were over Mohave County dissipating leaving only a few
remaining clouds. The trend for the remainder of the overnight
period is for clearing skies and cool temperatures. The shortwave
responsible for the cooler temperatures and scattered showers will
continue to move east this weekend; however, we will continue to
deal with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to gusty north
winds over the eastern half of the forecast area, especially down
the Colorado River Valley through Saturday. With ridging expected
next week, expect to see lighter winds, dry conditions, and warming
temperatures.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

An upper level low is currently centered over Arizona while a ridge
approaches the west coast. Both features are expected to track east
over the next few days which bring impacts related to precipitation,
winds, and temperatures. Current satellite imagery shows cumulus
development over high terrain in eastern Mohave County. Mesoanalysis
indicates around 250 J/kg MUCAPE and PWATs between .2 and .3 inch.
Although these parameters are far more limited in spatial extent and
magnitude compared to 24 hours ago, guidance still has isolated
shower development in eastern Mohave County this afternoon,
particularly over high terrain. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled
out as well. Storm activity slows down in the late afternoon and
evening as atmospheric instability decreases and the low shifts
east, taking moisture and cold air aloft with it. Dry conditions are
expected over the weekend.

The incoming ridge behind the exiting low will bring increased
northerly winds to the forecast area today and tomorrow as the
pressure gradient between the two features tightens. Most areas will
experience gusts of 20 to 30 mph today, increasing to 25 to 35 mph
tomorrow. However, the strongest winds of this event will be in the
Colorado River Valley tonight into tomorrow morning. Confidence is
low in a widespread wind event that would warrant a wind headlines.
Although the strongest gusts may reach 40 mph, it should be for
short periods of time in a limited area south of Bullhead City.
Guidance also shows winds peaking overnight and tapering off during
the day, which should reduce any potential impacts. Therefore, a
Wind Advisory does not appear necessary at this time. Winds will
also be below Lake Wind Advisory criteria for Lake Mead and Lake
Mohave, but extra caution is advised for increased wave activity.

Temperatures steadily increase as heights rise with the incoming
ridge. Highs on Sunday will be near to above average for early
April. For Las Vegas, there is a 25 percent probability of reaching
80 degrees on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a ridge
of high pressure that will bring well above normal temperatures
through the week. The ridge that builds over the weekend will
flatten briefly early in the week as a shortwave moves into the
Pacific NW. This will have little impact on our sensible weather and
temperatures will climb to above normal readings starting Monday.
Temperatures will continue to rise through the week, likely peaking
by Friday. The probabilities of Las Vegas reaching 90 degrees on
Tuesday is currently around 5%, but by Tuesday that number reaches
63%. The temperatures will only continue to warm through Friday with
an almost 100% chance of at least 90 by Thursday and a 25% chance of
reaching 95 degrees on both Thursday and Friday. Although Las Vegas
did reach 92 degrees on March 26, this will be the most prolonged
heat so far this season. Other areas across the forecast area will
see temperatures about 15 degrees above normal. HeatRisk increases
to "Low" (Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys Monday
including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and
the Colorado River Valley. The HeatRisk does increase to "Moderate"
(Level 2) for the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley by
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...North to
northeast winds with occasional gusts to 25 knots will continue
through the late afternoon.  Winds will diminish to 10 to 12 knots
by 03Z and then maintain that speed through tonight.  Similar wind
patterns are expected tomorrow with gusty north to northeast winds
developing after 15Z and continuing through the afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail through Saturday with SCT to FEW clouds with
bases AOA 10kft AGL into tonight, then mainly clear thereafter.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described for Harry
Reid, except speeds at KVGT will average a few knots higher through
tomorrow. Elsewhere across the region, winds at KBIH will be
northerly through tomorrow, with any remaining gusts ending this
evening and then falling to less than 10 knots by late evening. KDAG
will see gusty north winds into the early evening and again tomorrow
afternoon, with the more typical westerly breezes tonight. Winds in
the lower Colorado River Valley will be northerly through Saturday,
with gusts as high as 30 knots continuing into the early evening and
35 knots on Saturday.  VFR conditions will prevail in all areas
through Saturday, with SCT to FEW clouds with bases AOA 10kft AGL
into tonight, then mainly clear thereafter.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Planz

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