441
FXUS65 KVEF 241828
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1128 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today`s weather features cooler than average
temperatures, breezy southwesterly winds, and thunderstorms in the
southern Great Basin and Inyo County. Some storms may produce gusty
outflow winds. Above normal temperatures return next week as high
pressure builds over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday.

A shortwave continues to track east across southern Nevada today and
tonight. Breezy southwesterly winds persist across the Mojave Desert
and temperatures should top out a few degrees below average due to
cloud cover and falling heights aloft. Cloud cover appears to be
more persistent than models indicated, but should clear through the
afternoon. However, the main forecast concern is shower and
thunderstorm development in the southern Great Basin and eastern
Sierra region this afternoon and evening as the cold core of the
shortwave moves through. Cumulus development has already been
observed in areas of clearing high clouds in Esmeralda and Nye
counties. Forecast soundings show dry air up to around 12kft or
higher. Storm bases at this height mean that most rainfall should
evaporate before it hits the ground. The HREF only gives a 20
percent probability of 1 hour precipitation totals greater than 0.01
inch. Instead, the greater impact from these storms will be wind.
Along with high bases on soundings, mesoanalysis shows 1000 J/kg
DCAPE in the southern Great Basin and Inyo County later today. High
resolution models suggest outflow gusts of 40 mph possible under the
strongest cells today. Activity should taper off later in the
evening as surface heating ends.

On Sunday, the shortwave is quickly replaced by a narrow ridge
wedged between the shortwave moving east and a trough moving into
the Pacific Coast. Rising heights aloft mean high temperatures
should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today. Winds
will overall be lighter during the day, but westerly winds start to
pick up tomorrow evening in the western Mojave Desert. The strongest
gusts should stick to high terrain with lower elevation gusts around
30 mph.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

Another shortwave will follow on the heels of this weekend`s system,
moving through the region early next week. The most noticable impact
from this system will be breezy, sub-advisory southwesterly winds
picking up on Monday as the system approaches the area. This system
will also slow down our warming trend for a day or two before
ridging reestablishes itself over the area and our warming trend
resumes. A cut-off low will approach the coast of California during
the latter half of the week, attempting to undercut the high
amplitude ridge over the western US, resulting in a pseudo rex block
looking pattern. Exact details remain blurry due to uncertainty
regarding the exact position of the cut-off low and ridge. However,
even with this uncertainty, there is high confidence (75 to 90%
chance) in above normal temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to
southwest winds with gusts of 20 to 25 knots can be expected through
the afternoon with decreasing cloudiness. Wind gusts should end
around sunset. For Sunday, light easterly winds could return around
mid morning, shifting to southerly in the afternoon. Clouds are
likely to build up on the mountains, but are not likely to lead to
showers. VFR conditions through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The two main concerns
for this period will be thunderstorm chances in the Sierra Nevada
range and southern Great Basin today and gusty southwesterly winds
in the Mojave Desert today and Sunday. This afternoon, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Sierra
Nevada, with lesser chances farther east through the northern part
of the Nevada National Security Site and toward Rachel. The main
threat with these storms will be erratic gusty winds, possibly
spreading many miles from the thunderstorm. In the Mojave Desert,
southwesterly winds gusting 20 to 30 knots can be expected, with the
strongest winds in the wind-prone areas such as Barstow and Kingman.
VFR conditions will prevail in the deserts. For Sunday, both
thunderstorm chances and wind speeds should be lower than today.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Morgan

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