009
FXUS65 KVEF 280446
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
946 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dangerous heat expected across the Mojave Desert through Friday.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms across the region today
  through Saturday, with gusty winds and heavy rain being the
  greatest threat.

* Gusty afternoon winds possible Saturday and Sunday near 40 mph at
  times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Early Next Week

Well above normal temperatures continue through the rest of the week
across the Mojave Desert as strong 500 mb ridging is centered over
the Four Corners region. Upper air observations indicate 597dm
heights under the ridge, which is well above average for this time
of year. In addition well above normal low and mid level temperature
anomalies support extreme heat persisting through at least tomorrow.
Record highs were either broken or tied at Las Vegas, Kingman, and
Desert Rock on Wednesday, and it looks like another day of near-
record heat before slight cooling on Friday-though temperatures will
still remain several degrees above normal. Today is expected to be
the hottest day of the week with most areas seeing readings about 8-
10 degrees above normal. An approaching trough over the eastern
Pacific will help to suppress the ridge and shift it eastward Friday
through the weekend, resulting in lowering heights and slightly
cooler temperatures. Despite a slow downward trend in temperatures
into the weekend, they will still remain several degrees above
normal for late summer. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
through Friday for the Mojave Desert. While afternoon high
temperatures have been this hot (or hotter) earlier in the summer
without heat headlines, it is important to note that there is
historically a resurgence of heat-related impacts at the end of the
season. See the CLIMATE section at the bottom for daily records.

Despite the presence of extreme heat, monsoon season is still here
with chances for showers and storms today through Saturday for
portions of NW Arizona, the Colorado River Valley, and Southern
Nevada, and Northern Inyo County. Deepest moisture today remains
over the lower Colorado River Valley and within Mohave County where
PW remains near 1.1" but surface dew points are only in the 40s to
low 50s. KLAS ACARs and RAOB soundings do show deeper upper level
moisture today than yesterday at this time, so would not be
surprised if convection today and tomorrow are a bit higher in
coverage than the previous few days. Satellite imagery this
afternoon does show agitated Cu across the Mojave Desert and
isolated storms have already been popping up. An increase in
coverage through 00-03z is expected before loss of instability after
sunset allows convection to wane. Any storm does have the potential
to produce locally heavy rainfall rates, wind gusts to 60 mph, and
lightning. Deeper moisture surges northward tonight through Saturday
with dew points in the 50s and 60s and PW in the 1.00 to 1.40 inch
range. An approaching trough will also bring stronger upper level
winds from 700mb up to 300mb, resulting in better shear profiles for
convective organization. While the overall daily storm coverage can
easily be impacted by leftover clouds from the previous days
convection, confidence is increasing better storm coverage Friday
and Saturday for much of the region. Mid range guidance does show
drier air advecting into the region Sunday into early next week
likely keeping monsoon activity at bay or confined solely to
Mohave County for a few days.

Also watching Northern Inyo County as a stronger jet streak
associated with the approaching trough from the west is advecting in
deeper tropical moisture from the pacific. While an increase in
clouds is limiting overall instability, steeper mid and upper lapse
rates may be enough to support locally higher rainfall rates at
times in and around the Rock Fire burn scar. Satellite and radar
imagery this afternoon shows largely stratiform rain moving into the
Sierra and Inyo County, so will keep a close eye on this area in the
event flooding does become a concern. Less concerned with rainfall
rates high enough to produce flash flooding today. Due to a stronger
jet influence aloft, light to moderate rain will likely continue
into tonight for Inyo county as this is not diurnally driven.
Tomorrow appears to have a better chance at afternoon convection
near Inyo county where brief periods of higher rainfall rates are
possible.

Windy conditions possible this weekend from in the southern portion
of the forecast area including San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave
Counties. A stronger mid level jet streak of 35-45 kts moves
overhead this weekend ahead of the incoming trough. Strong afternoon
mixing into this jet streak may produce surface wind gusts over 40
mph at times. Best day for strongest winds appears to be Sunday as
stronger vort max associated with the upper trough axis pushes
through. Keeping winds under advisory criteria at the moment, but if
forecast trends continue a Wind Advisory may be needed for portions
of the area this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Typical light wind patterns are expected through the night
with light and variable winds by Friday morning. South to southwest
winds are expected Friday afternoon, likely gusting over 20KT.
Showers and thunderstorms will to develop Friday afternoon in
Southern Nevada into southeast California, but low confidence in
convection coverage and how close they will get to the terminals.
Continued with VCTS but mentions of impacts such as TSRA, erratic
gusty winds, and CIGs below 10kft may need to be added if confidence
in impacts in the valley increases. Whatever showers and
thunderstorms does develop will diminish after sunset. Temperatures
will exceed 100F 17Z-04Z tomorrow. VFR skies prevailing.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Typical wind patterns
are expected tonight with winds generally under 10KT. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Sierra for a few more
hours but generally should diminish for the overnight period. On
Friday, south to southwest winds will increase in the early
afternoon across much of the region with gusts 15-25KT expected.
Convection will develop across much of the region Friday afternoon,
with gusty erratic winds, lightning, and CIGs below 10kft are
possible with any storms. Further northwest in Inyo County, mainly
showers are expected on Friday. Winds and precipitation will wane
after sunset. VFR skies prevailing through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record (Yr) Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     110(2017)*  110(2019)*
Bishop        103(2019)*  103(2017)
Needles       120(1891)   116(2023)*
Daggett       111(2017)   111(2017)
Kingman       107(2017)*  107(2009)
Desert Rock   107(2017)   107(2017)
Death Valley  124(1924)   120(2011)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     87(2011)*   86(2019)*
Bishop        67(1970)    62(1970)
Needles       93(2011)    94(2017)
Daggett       81(2011)*   82(2017)*
Kingman       79(2020)*   75(2019)*
Desert Rock   78(1995)*   77(2011)*
Death Valley  95(2011)*  100(2019)*
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moore
AVIATION...Nickerson

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