325
FXUS65 KVEF 221008
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
308 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories will continue through
  Saturday as hotter than normal temperatures stick around.

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing strong outflow
  winds and flash flooding will be possible for areas south and
  east of I-15, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible
  in Lincoln and Inyo Counties.

* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

The current Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings in effect for
southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California
will remain in effect through Saturday night as hotter than normal
temperatures stick around. Today`s afternoon high temperatures will
top out around 4 to 7 degrees above normal for late August.
Temperatures will cool slightly from today to tomorrow. However,
overnight low temperatures from tonight through Saturday morning
will be around 6 to 13 degrees warmer than normal. These warm
overnight low temperatures will be the primary driver behind
elevated HeatRisk levels on Saturday. Temperatures will cool further
as we head into next week with cooler than normal temperatures
returning to the region.

The latest infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows debris
clouds from convection in southern Arizona pushing into the
southeastern portions of our forecast area. These clouds will move
through southern Nevada and southeastern California through the
afternoon. This cloud cover will limit daytime heating across the
central portion of our forecast area with the best chances of
afternoon convection in the clear areas around these clouds (i.e.,
areas south and east of the I-15 corridor, eastern Lincoln County,
and western Inyo County). HiRes models show the best instability
over southeastern Mohave County where daytime heating will be the
strongest. With dry low-levels and DCAPE pushing 1,000 J/kg, severe
outflow winds will be possible as is indicated by the latest Day 1
Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Additionally, storms will
be capable of producing heavy rain and flash flooding southeastern
portions of our forecast area where PWs are 100 to 150% above
normal. Stronger storms will be capable of producing 1+ inch per
hour rain rates. Convection will initially favor higher terrain with
additional development possible across lower elevations as outflow
boundaries move through.

Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend and into early next week as monsoonal
moisture remains trapped beneath the ridge. Hazards will remain the
same with strong outflow winds, heavy rain, flash flooding, and
frequent lightning possible with any storms that develop over the
weekend. Next week, a weak trough off the CA coast begins to provide
upper-level support for more widespread showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy
south-southwesterly winds will continue overnight with speeds
between 6 and 8 kts. Late-morning into the early-afternoon, winds
will favor the east with light speeds. Expect virga / light shower
activity around the terminal, with best chances between 17 and 21Z.
10-20% chance of shower activity directly over any Las Vegas Valley
terminals, though erratic gusty winds to 20-30 kts can be expected
with any nearby shower or thunderstorm activity. FEW-SCT aoa 12kft
through the TAF period, with thicker clouds expected with nearby
precipitation. Temperatures reach or exceed 100 degrees between 17
and 05Z, peaking around 110.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will
generally favor diurnal speeds and patterns through the TAF period,
though vicinity shower and thunderstorm activity near KBIH and KDAG
could result in erratic, gusty winds from their direction, with
speeds between 25 and 35 kts. Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River
Valley TAF sites have best chances for seeing virga or light shower
activity between 17 and 21Z, with 10-20% chance of shower activity
directly over the terminals and erratic winds possible from
convective activity.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Soulat

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