084
FXUS65 KVEF 172338
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
438 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Increased monsoonal moisture brings scattered showers and storms
  to the area through Saturday, with flash flooding and gusty
  outflow winds the main hazards.

* Below-normal temperatures today and Friday, with a gradual rebound
  to near seasonal values over the weekend and next week.

* Breezy southwest winds and drier conditions return next week as a
  trough sits off the West Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Latest satellite imagery shows an MCV drifting NW through
southeastern portions of the CWA. This feature, along with the
terrain, will be the lifting mechanism for scattered convection
across Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties this afternoon. Flash
flooding and gusty outflow winds are the primary hazards. Due to the
increased moisture and forecast coverage of storms, opted to issue a
short-fused Flash Flood Watch for the aforementioned counties until
11PM. Farther west, convection and the subsequent hazards will be
more isolated in nature. Tomorrow, precipitation chances become more
widespread across the region, but the greatest coverage is expected
in northern Lincoln and central Nye counties. This area will have
the greatest risk of flash flooding. By Saturday, drier air begins
to move in from the west, bring precip chances down and largely
confining them Mohave and Lincoln counties, though an isolated storm
or two may develop on the Sierra and/or Spring Mountains.

Due to increased moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be 5-10
degrees below normal for most of the area, particularly the eastern
half. As drier air moves in over the weekend and next week,
expecting a rebound to more seasonal values. This drier air will
also be accompanied by increased southwest winds as a trough sits
off the West Coast. Chances for impactful winds appear modest (under
30%) at this point, but breezes could be strong enough to elevate
fire weather conditions in areas that don`t see much precipitation
over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Primary concern continues to be convective activity
through ~06Z. Vicinity convection is likely (90%), but chances of
rain at the terminal are closer to ~50%. Should a storm move
overhead, brief downpours could result in MVFR or IFR conditions.
Otherwise, gusty outflow winds will be the main hazard. Gusts most
likely to be in the 25-40 knot range, but cannot rule out gusts
~50 knots if a storm moves over the terminal. Outside of
convective influences, winds should largely be from the south-
southeast at 8-12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. Scattered to
broken clouds around 12kft, potentially dropping to 8-10kft if a
storm moves overhead. Another round of storms is expected to
develop by around midday Friday, with associated impacts expected
through late afternoon. Temperatures remain under 100F through the
forecast period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered convection
to continue through the evening hours across northwestern AZ and
southeastern NV. Isolated shower/virga activity possible across
our California zones. Under the heaviest cores, brief downpours
could result in MVFR or IFR conditions. Outflow wind gusts 20-40
knots, possibly higher should a storm move over an airport.
Outside of convective influences, winds for most of the area will
be from the south, though across the Western Mojave, westerly
winds are favored, with variable winds in the Owens Valley.
Scattered to broken clouds around 12kft, potentially dropping to
8-10kft if a storm moves overhead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter