153
FXUS65 KVEF 140506
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1006 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms linger in Mohave County this
  afternoon, posing a localized flash flood and severe threat.

* A potent, early-season storm system will bring gusty winds and
  precipitation to the region early this week, including
  impactful snow above 7000-8000 feet.

* Temperatures will be well below normal most of the week, with
  freezing morning low temperatures across the Owens Valley and
  Southern Great Basin by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms persist in Mohave County this
afternoon as moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond interacts
with our approaching trough. While 150-200% of normal, raw PWAT
values aren`t overly impressive at ~0.75". However, that has not
prevent storms from producing a quick 0.50" of rain, resulting in
localized flash flooding, particularly where training convection
occurs. Additionally, the presence of the trough means that there
is sufficient vertical wind shear for strong to severe storms,
capable of producing 60+ mph gusts and quarter-sized hail. As the
sun sets this evening, instability will wane and storms will
dissipate.

The aforementioned trough has already begun to increase southwest
winds across the region, with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph.
These should increase a bit more this afternoon, and after a
relative lull tonight, return tomorrow ahead of the band of
precipitation. Wind Advisories for most of our zones have already
gone into effect, with Las Vegas Valley`s advisory going into effect
at 8AM Tuesday. As mentioned, a band of precipitation is forecast to
push into our western zones late tonight, pushing eastward
throughout the day Tuesday. Rainfall in the valley locations doesn`t
look to be too impactful, but rather a beneficial light-to-moderate
rain with amounts up to 0.50-0.75" in some of our western and
northern valleys. Above 7000-8000 feet, precipitation will largely
be in the form of snow. Significant accumulations are anticipated in
the Eastern Sierra, with 6-12 inches of snow above 7000 feet, and
between 1-2 feet or more in the highest elevations above 9000 feet.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 5PM today until 5AM
Wednesday. In the White, Spring, and Sheep Mountains, snow
accumulations are expected to be a bit more modest, with greater
than 60% chances of 2+ inches on the roadways. Thus, opted to issue
Winter Weather Advisories for these locations. Lida Summit in
southern Esmeralda County could also see some snow impacts. All
winter headlines are currently set to expire before sunrise
Wednesday.

Notably cooler air will move in on Wednesday as the system exits.
Lows in the northern Owens Valley are expected to drop below
freezing, with a Freeze Watch in effect Wednesday morning. Wednesday
afternoon highs are forecast to be 12-20 degrees below normal for
mid-October. Temperatures slowly moderate over the subsequent days,
eventually returning to seasonable values by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The
strongest winds for today have ended with no more gusts expected
overnight. South winds around 10KT will slowly transition to the
southeast by Tuesday morning, decreasing to around 8KT briefly early
Tuesday morning before picking up and gusting again after sunrise.
Until precipitation arrives, wind direction should be between 140-
180 degrees (true) with gusts to around 30KTs. Once the band of rain
moves in Tuesday afternoon around 21Z, winds will shift to a more
south-southwest direction and weaken slightly as gusts drop to
around 25KT. Compared to the previous forecast, the band of
precipitation has slowed down a few hours. The best chances (50%)
for rain between 22z and 02z, with CIGs likely (60%) between 6-8kft
with this rain. There continues to be a 20% chance they drop to
3kft. Sky conditions should improve pretty quickly Tuesday evening
as precipitation exits around 03Z. Winds will stop gusting as the
rain moves away with south sot southwest winds around 10KT for the
first half of Tuesday night, dropping to 8KT or less the second half
of the night.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...A band of precipitation
will begin to spill over the Sierra late tonight, moving into Inyo,
Esmeralda, and Nye counties by Tuesday early morning. The eastward
progression continues throughout the day tomorrow, moving through
southeastern California and southern Nevada by Tuesday afternoon.
Since the previous forecast, this progression through the area has
slowed down about 2 hours. Within the precipitation, expect reduced
visibilities, lowered CIGs, and terrain obscuration. In the Mojave
Desert, CIGs between 6-8kft are forecast while the southern Great
Basin and Owens Valley should drop between 3-5kft, with 30-50% odds
of falling below 2kft. The southern Colorado River and much of
Mohave County should remain dry, missing the rainfall. Ahead of the
precipitation on Tuesday, slightly stronger south-southeast winds
are expected with gusts 25-35 KT. As rain moves in, winds become
southwest to west and drop back to gusts around 25KT. Precipitation
should exit to the east after 00Z, and as it exits winds should
diminish. Will need to watch for fog in areas like KBIH where
heavier rainfall occur during the day if winds go light enough at
night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

.DISCUSSION...Woods
.AVIATION...Nickerson


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