784
FXUS65 KVEF 121953
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Smoke from nearby fires will result in hazy skies at times through
  at least Sunday, but significant or widespread smoke impacts near
  the surface are not expected.

* Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend and heat
  headlines have been issued for Monday.

* Monsoon moisture makes a possible return mid to late next week
  along with a drop in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Hazy skies are expected at times over the next few days as
various fires burn across the region combined with generally light
winds aloft. Most of the smoke over Las Vegas and northern Mohave
County is originating from the Dragon Bravo Fire, a 1500 acre fire
near the north rim of the Grand Canyon, as well as the White Sage
Fire, a 20 thousand acre fire southeast of Fredonia, Arizona.
According to the HRRR Smoke model, smoke from the 30 thousand acre
Gothic Fire in central Nye County should spread across much of
southern Nevada this afternoon. Most of the smoke should remain
aloft and with minimal reductions in visibility at the surface.

Above normal temperatures will persist as high pressure continues to
build over the region through Monday. Surface high temperatures will
climb 6-8 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, the hottest days
of next week. Most areas will be under Moderate (Level 2 of 4)
HeatRisk on Sunday with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) around the
Mojave Desert. By Monday, the pockets of Level 3 expand in coverage
to include large swaths including the Las Vegas Valley, Amargosa
Valley, Pahrump, Death Valley, and Valley of Fire. This level
affects anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration and
may impact heat sensitive industries and infrastructure. Therefore,
issued a Heat Advisory for Esmeralda, Lincoln, and central Nye
counties, and an Extreme Heat Warning for Death Valley and the
remainder of southern Nevada on Monday.

The ridge will slowly retreat and weaken after Monday. Temperatures
will cool off each day in response starting Tuesday as heights aloft
fall. Moisture should also start to increase with this pattern.
While it will not result in any precipitation right away, it will
help cool temperatures and reduce any fire danger. High
temperatures will be close to normal by Wednesday and expected to
remain near normal through the rest of the week. Precipitation
chances start to sneak into northwestern Arizona by Wednesday,
increasing in coverage on Thursday and Friday as a weak shortwave
and better moisture work their way into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The main
concern today will be a period of southeast winds around 8 to 10
knots this afternoon. Southwesterly winds of less than 10 knots
return in the evening. A secondary concern will be slantwise
visibility reduction due to smoke from fires in Nevada and Arizona.
The FEW120 group is meant to convey a smoke layer - not water
clouds. Surface visibility should not be affected. Temperatures
should fall to less than 100 degrees by 05Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Mostly
quiet weather is expected today aside from some breezy south to
southwest winds in the afternoon. Smoke from fires in Nevada and
Arizona may reduce slantwise visibility over much of the region.
Smoke will also flatten out into a cloud layer aloft, but surface
visibility should not be affected. Otherwise, few or no clouds
are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Meltzer


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