905
FXUS65 KVEF 070225
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
720 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight,
bringing periods of moderate rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds. Warmer and drier conditions return once the system exits
Wednesday night. High temperatures will be well above average by
this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...It`s been a very active evening across the forecast area
thanks to a small and compact closed low dropping south out of the
Great Basin and interacting with a lingering reservoir of anomalous
moisture blanketing the Mojave Desert. Initial storms of the day
formed over the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada and pushed east
across the Las Vegas Metro, delivering record rainfall, flooding,
and reports of hail. The daily rainfall today at Las Vegas reached
0.61", surpassing the previous daily record and placing the monthly
total at 1.44", firmly the new 1st place wettest May record. Even
more remarkable is May is traditionally one of the driest months of
the year, averaging only 0.07 inches of precipitation.

Additional storms flared up further south with a rather strong
supercell thunderstorm forming west of Laughlin and tracking
southeast into the Mohave Valley, with several reports of large hail
of quarter size or larger and significant flash flooding.

As of this writing, a broad area of rain and scattered thunderstorms
exists across eastern San Bernardino County and southern Mohave
County, and this region remains favored through midnight for
additional rain and thunderstorm impacts. A few stronger storms
containing hail and gusty winds will remain possible. Further north,
additional storms have developed in northeast Clark County and are
slowly drifting south, associated with the eastern edge of the
compact closed low dropping south. With this low continuing to sag
south into Clark County this evening, cannot completely rule out
some additional scattered storms, mainly on the eastern edge of Las
Vegas and points east.

Will be sending out a quick update to the current PoPs to ensure
they reflect current trends but overall things are in good shape.

-Outler-

&&

.SHORT TERM...Showers and thunderstorms are once again beginning
to develop late this morning. Initially they should favor Lincoln
and Mohave Counties and less so Clark County through the mid
afternoon hours. The main trigger will be a closed low dropping
southward from northern Nevada, which should move into Clark County
by late afternoon. Many of the hi-res models indicate a vort lobe
rotating around the main upper low and moving eastward across San
Bernardino County will initiate some more organized convective
activity by late afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms should
push to the east and reach the lower CRV by the evening hours.
Rainfall rates may be a bit heavier with these storms and they will
be capable of producing a quick 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall. This
area of convection will then move into southern Mohave County toward
midnight and then continue into the overnight hours before waning
by daybreak.

The main upper low will move into Arizona on Wednesday and slowly
move to the east. It will be close enough to help trigger some
additional showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon mainly
across Mohave County. PW values will be decreasing as well as
rainfall rates.

A large scale ridge will begin to build across the Western US on
Thursday bringing drier conditions and a notable warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

With the ridge of high pressure in firm control the temperatures
will climb several degrees through Saturday, and top out roughly 10-
15 degrees above normal by Saturday and Sunday. There is about a 30
percent chance of reaching 100 in Las Vegas on Saturday and Sunday.
If we do reach 100 it would be the earliest 100 since 2020. In lower
elevations such as the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley, a
return to triple digit temps is a virtual certainty.

Sunday onward, a trough will begin to develop off the coast of the
PacNW and may slowly creep inland next week. There is a fair amount
of uncertainty in how deep this trough will be and how quickly it
will shift inland. As such, confidence is fairly low in the details
but a slight cooling trend may begin as early as Monday along with a
return of at least breezy conditions Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...There
remains a 30% chance of thunderstorm activity through 5z, though
current trends suggest that risk is waning. However, a shot of
northeast winds with gusts of 15-25 knots is inbound and will
persist through 5z before waning and shifting to more typical
overnight directions. Sky conditions will improve overnight with dry
conditions and light winds favoring typical daily trends expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The main concern for
this period will be showers and thunderstorms in San Bernardino and
Mohave counties. These storms will move south and east early this
evening and could persist into Wednesday in areas southeast of
Interstate 15. The main concerns with storms will be erratic gusty
winds, low ceilings with terrain obscuration, and reduced visibility
in rain. Farther northwest, VFR conditions are expected overnight
and into Wednesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Czyzyk
LONG TERM...Czyzyk/Outler
AVIATION...Morgan

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