Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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592
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPURP
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE
BEKN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE
HAIN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW
BENN1 7.0 9.0 11.0 | 6 8 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE
STTN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE
PALN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 | 5 11 13 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW
PASN1 10.0 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE
CULN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW
MCKN1 17.0 19.0 21.0 | 5 <5 <5 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE
MKRN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT CAMBRIDGE NE 1E
CAMN1 9.0 10.0 16.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W
ORNN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 | 9 14 20 | 5 5 15 | <5 <5 9
:BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS
LDLK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 | 22 40 43 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS
CDBK1 16.0 18.0 20.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK AT BEAVER CITY 4WSW
BEVN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 | 8 <5 <5 | 7 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW
OBNK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 | 17 30 31 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE
NCRK1 17.0 20.0 22.0 | <5 6 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW
BVSN1 16.0 18.0 20.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E
STMN1 19.0 22.0 26.0 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW
WDRK1 19.0 24.0 30.0 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.9/ 3.2/ 2.7/ 3.7/ 4.6/
:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 8.3/ 7.5/ 9.6/ 10.2/
:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 6.6/ 7.8/
STTN1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 8.4/ 7.8/ 9.1/ 9.9/
:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 5.6/ 5.3/ 6.2/ 7.2/
:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 4.8/ 7.2/
:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 5.3/ 7.0/
:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1 2.4/ 2.4/ 3.2/ 10.9/ 10.5/ 12.5/ 18.2/
:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 7.0/ 6.7/ 7.3/ 8.5/
CAMN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 6.2/ 7.6/
ORNN1 1.3/ 1.3/ 2.1/ 7.4/ 6.7/ 8.6/ 10.8/
:BEAVER CR
LDLK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 9.1/ 8.9/ 9.2/ 9.7/
CDBK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 8.7/ 8.5/ 9.7/ 12.3/
:BEAVER CREEK
BEVN1 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.9/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 8.2/ 13.7/
:SAPPA CR
OBNK1 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 10.4/ 9.9/ 12.1/ 13.0/
NCRK1 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 11.2/ 9.7/ 13.3/ 15.8/
BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 8.2/ 6.8/ 9.0/ 10.8/
STMN1 6.8/ 6.8/ 7.0/ 10.2/ 10.1/ 13.9/ 19.0/
:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1 1.7/ 1.7/ 2.4/ 10.0/ 9.0/ 10.7/ 16.0/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/
:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1 3.5/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/
STTN1 5.3/ 4.7/ 4.3/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/
:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/
:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/
:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/
CAMN1 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/
ORNN1 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/
:BEAVER CR
LDLK1 2.7/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
CDBK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/
:BEAVER CREEK
BEVN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
:SAPPA CR
OBNK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
NCRK1 4.5/ 4.0/ 3.5/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/
STMN1 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/
:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/
.END
$$