Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
799
FNUS73 KUNR 121114
FWSUNR
Spot Forecast for 18 Mile RX...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
514 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on May 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Tuesday. Highs
today will be in the upper 80s with minimum relative humidities in
the lower teens. Winds will be gusty southwest by afternoon as
deep boundary layer mixing continues.
A cold front will move onto the plains Tuesday, but there is low
confidence on whether it will rise to the prescription area in
the afternoon. If it does, winds could turn easterly (the
forecast), but if it does not, winds would stay westerly in the
afternoon. Tuesday will remain warm and dry with minimum relative
humidity from 15-20%.
Looking ahead, behind the cold front Tuesday night, showers and
thunderstorms will develop as winds shift northwest. Much cooler
air arrives for Wednesday and Thursday with continued good
chances for showers and thunderstorms as well as wetting rains.
Precipitation will be hit or miss temporally, but the latest
25-75th percentile total QPF for Tuesday night through Thursday
continues to be 0.15-0.90" with the expected value 0.25-0.40".
Highs Wednesday will be in the 50s with minimum relative
humidities in the 40s. Highs Thursday will be around 50 with
minimum relative humidities in the 50s. Both Wednesday and
Thursday will have northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts from
30-40 mph, strongest on Thursday.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west early in the morning, then shifting to the
southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts around 25
mph by afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......8500 to 9000 ft agl increasing to 14600 to
15100 ft agl in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 20
to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 6 8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............59 62 68 73 76 79 81 85 86 87 87 86
RH..............39 36 30 26 23 20 18 15 13 12 12 12
20 FT wind dir..NW W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..2 3 5 6 8 10 13 14 14 14 13 13
20 FT wind gust.8 9 10 12 15 21 24 25 25 25 24 24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.1 1.7 2.3 5.7 9.0 12 13 14 15 14 14
Transp wind dir.NW W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.8 10 13 16 18 21 23 24 25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts around
20 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......4600 to 5100 ft agl decreasing to 500 to 1000
ft agl in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 25 mph decreasing to around 10
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent decreasing to poor.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........11 14 17 20 21 21 21 19 17 15 14 13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............84 80 75 72 69 68 66 64 62 60 59 59
RH..............13 15 18 21 24 26 29 31 35 37 39 39
20 FT wind dir..SW SW S S S S S S S SW SW W
20 FT wind spd..12 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5
20 FT wind gust.22 18 16 15 16 16 13 10 12 13 12 10
Mix hgt (kft)...13 8.8 4.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW S S S S S S S S SW W
Transp wind spd.24 21 16 14 16 20 22 20 16 13 10 9
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20
mph shifting to the east with gusts
around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
See discussion if front does not make it.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......9800 to 10300 ft agl increasing to 12300 to
12800 ft agl late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph
early in the morning, then shifting to the
south around 20 mph late in the afternoon
shifting to the southeast late in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12 15 17 20 24 28 32 37 42 48 46 45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............60 62 67 70 73 74 75 78 79 80 80 80
RH..............37 35 28 25 23 21 21 18 17 16 17 18
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W E E E
20 FT wind spd..6 7 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.10 13 15 17 18 20 21 21 21 21 21 22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.1 4.1 5.1 7.7 10 13 12 12
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W S SE
Transp wind spd.10 15 22 26 26 25 24 22 21 20 18 20
$$
Forecaster...EH
Requested by...Hayden Hoelscher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513552.3/UNR
.DELDT 05/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brice.stanton@usda.gov,todd.hoover@usda.gov,christopher.bennett@usda.gov,hayden.hoelscher@usda.gov