931
FNUS73 KUNR 161120
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Witch Fire...Great Plains Dispatch
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
520 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Winds through the forecast period are generally expected
to be light and predominately terrain driven. Thunderstorms could
develop near and over the forecast site this afternoon with the
most likely timing for storms after 2 pm, though confidence in
exact timing and location of storms is low. Some storms could be
strong to severe with hail, frequent lightning and strong and
erratic wind gusts of 60+ MPH possible. These storms could also
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Chances for storms should decrease after midnight. There`s a
chance for isolated storms tomorrow afternoon, mainly after 2-3
pm. Again, there`s a chance for storms to be strong to severe with
hail and strong and erratic wind gusts of 60+ MPH possible.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon, then chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds will be light and terrain driven through
early this morning before shifting to the
southwest later this morning. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................25 percent.
Mixing height.......6700 to 7200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77  82  68  56  63  58  66  75  78  63  58  58
Weather cov.....                        CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............62  64  69  73  80  82  83  82  82  81  79  77
RH..............67  63  59  51  38  34  34  38  38  41  47  54
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   W   SW  SW  SW  SE  SE  SE  SE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   9   10  13  14  16  17  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 5.4 6.0 6.1 7.2 5.2 3.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  E
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   9   10  10  12  13  14  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds will be light and terrain driven through
tonight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
CWR.................20 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
                    overnight, then shifting to the northwest
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65  62  57  58  56  45  43  32  27  19  21  33
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............75  73  71  68  66  65  65  63  63  62  61  61
RH..............58  64  71  78  78  81  81  87  84  84  84  84
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.17  16  15  14  13  12  12  10  10  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   NE  E   E   E   NE  NW  W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  13  10  9   8   7   7   8   9

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and terrain driven winds expected through
the day. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......9500 to 10000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to very good late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  20  35  17  5   6   7   10  14  17  22  26
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............59  61  66  73  76  79  81  82  83  82  81  79
RH..............90  84  73  55  45  39  35  33  32  33  35  41
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   9   10  13  14  15  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.4 6.9 8.4 10  8.0 6.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NE
Transp wind spd.10  9   9   8   9   10  12  13  13  13  14  14

$$
Forecaster...EW
Requested by...Hanje
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519995.2/UNR
.DELDT 08/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sdgpc@firenet.gov