999
FNUS73 KUNR 171224
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Bierma rd fire...RBA
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
624 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on October 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions will persist
through this afternoon with unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy
conditions. Temperatures will reach the mid 80s this afternoon with
minimum relative humidity around 17 percent. Winds will be
southwesterly, gusting 35 to 40 mph this morning through early afternoon.
The winds will drop drop a bit after 1500 hours to around 15 to 25 mph as
a cold front approaches. The front will reach the fire around 1600
with winds shifting out of the west and then northwest. Wind speeds will not
change much behind the front with gusts up to 25 mph out of the northwest
with the frontal passage.

Spotty showers are possible behind the front late tonight into
Friday morning, although precipitation amounts will be minimal through
Friday morning. Additional showers possible Friday into Saturday with
about a 20-25% chance of a wetting rain (>0.1") Friday morning through
Saturday evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts
                    of 35 to 40 mph this morning through early afternoon.
                    Winds decreasing to 15 to 25 mph and shifting to the
                    northwest 1500-1600.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......10400 to 10900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 35 to 45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph shifting to the north
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.Friday...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers.
Max temperature.....63-65.
Min humidity........Around 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth.
Mixing height.......2600 to 3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 20 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.



$$
Forecaster...KC
Requested by...Tye odden
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424343.1/UNR
.DELDT 10/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bert.shields@bia.gov,tye.odden@mdu.com