064
FNUS73 KUNR 121812
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Route 13...BIA - Cheyenne River Agency
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1212 PM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on March 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Elevated fire weather conditions today with near-critical
to critical conditions expected Thursday afternoon.

Today - Sunny skies and mild, with highs pushing into the lower 60s.
Daytime humidity will bottom out between 1400-1500 at around 25 percent.
Winds will shift out of the southeast after 1300 hours this afternoon,
with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Expect fair overnight RH recovery (~65%) with
breezy southeasterly winds through the overnight hours. Winds will
gradually shift from southeasterly to southwesterly overnight tonight,
becoming southwesterly by 0600-0700 MT Thursday.

Thursday - Very warm (70s) and dry (RH fall into the teens) conditions
will coincide with gusty southwesterly winds Thursday afternoon, resulting
in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Coupled with the
dry day Thursday, RH recovery overnight Thursday into Friday morning
will be poor (~50-55%).

Winds overnight Thursday will be southerly and lighter (5-12 mph) after
1800 Thursday evening, shifting westerly after 0300-0400 Friday morning
ahead of a cold front. Winds will become northwesterly by 0600-0700 Friday
morning, rapidly increasing through the morning hours with sustained winds
of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50+ mph through the day Friday. Light
rain/snow is possible with the cold front, although liquid accumulation
forecast is ~0.05" (the chance of a wetting rain >0.1" is only around
25-30% Friday).

Elevated fire weather conditions return Saturday through the weekend as
mild, dry, and breezy weather resumes.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-northeast winds, shifting southeast winds
                    after 1300, sustained 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 to 25 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......4500 to 5000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 22 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts
                    up to 30 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......7600 to 8100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...SE
Requested by...Philomena Cournoyer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2506190.0/UNR
.DELDT 03/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL philomenacournoyer@gmail.com,philomena.cournoyer@bia.gov