822
FNUS73 KUNR 081314
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Choke cherry...Pine ridge agency
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
714 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0756 MDT on August 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is now through the fire area. Cooler weather is
expected today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms after
300 PM. North winds around 10 mph this morning will increase to
around 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph as daytime mixing gets going,
but expect gusty erratic winds near any thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms are possible through sunset, with chances for rain
showers continuing through midnight. It will be a cool night
tonight and mild and dry for Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......4000 to 4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  58  63  71  58  56  53  50  73  75  88
Weather cov.....                                    SCH SCH
Weather type....                                    RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............66  66  68  70  73  76  80  81  81  81  79
RH..............95  93  87  81  73  63  54  51  49  47  49
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..16  16  17  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.24  25  28  29  29  29  29  29  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.3 3.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.24  25  28  28  29  29  29  28  28  28  28

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then chance of showers late in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    26 mph decreasing to around 10 mph overnight,
                    then shifting to the west after 3 am shifting
                    to the southwest early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
CWR.................20 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the northwest after 3 am shifting
                    to the southwest early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........85  97  99  90  85  80  78  51  60  36  30  29
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CHC
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............77  73  71  69  67  66  64  62  60  58  56  56
RH..............50  57  57  61  63  65  67  70  75  80  83  80
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  W   SW
20 FT wind spd..17  16  14  12  9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.26  24  21  18  16  14  10  10  10  10  9   10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  N   N   N   NW  SW
Transp wind spd.26  24  21  18  15  13  10  9   9   9   9   10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 18 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......8400 to 8900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west 20
                    to 25 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  4   3   0   3   5   7   11  16  20  28  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  59  64  69  72  74  76  78  80  81  81  81
RH..............77  72  63  53  44  40  37  35  33  32  32  32
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   8   9   10  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.10  10  12  13  14  16  17  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 3.6 5.1 6.7 7.4 8.1 8.9 8.3 7.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  12  12  13  14  16  17  18  20  21  20  18

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. North winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
South winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...MS
Requested by...Colynn Condon Duty officer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519270.3/UNR
.DELDT 08/08/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL colynn.condon@bia.gov