941
FNUS73 KUNR 091516
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Victoria RX...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
816 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on November 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Rain showers, low clouds, and high RH will dominate the
weather through the afternoon today. Additional rainfall amounts around
0.1-0.2" are possible through the afternoon; rain will taper off after
1900-2100 hours this evening. Skies will clear overnight with temperatures
falling to around 35F with RH recovering to near 100% by daybreak Sunday.

Winds today will be light and heavily terrain driven. Expect considerable
terrain variability, although background winds are out of the northeast.
These northeast winds can be found on more exposed, upper slopes and where
wind/terrain align. Light, terrain driven winds expected overnight into
Sunday morning. Poor smoke dispersal today and tonight coupled with drainage
flows will likely bring any residual smoke down into the Sheridan Lake Road
area over the next 24 hours.

More of a westerly component to the winds Sunday with sunny skies and
temperatures warming to around 60F. Winds will turn southerly early
Monday morning and increase (20 foot gusts 20-30 mph) through the day Monday
along with mild and dry conditions (RH ~25-30% Monday).

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Areas of fog late in
                    the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon.
                    Rain showers will continue through the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........90-95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Diurnal and terrain driven winds will dominate.
                    Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph can be expected on
                    upper slopes and exposed areas. Occasional gusts
                    up to 15 mph in these exposed areas.
CWR.................70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......800 to 1300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent) after 2400-0100. Chance of
                    rain in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west after 2000. Terrain driven/diurnal winds
                    will dominate, especially in sheltered locations.
                    A few gusts up to 14 mph on exposed slopes.
CWR.................25 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds around 10 mph. Strongest winds
                    can be expected on exposed, wind facing slopes.
                    Gusts 12 to 17 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 to 2500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

$$
Forecaster...SE
Requested by...Shea Koch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2425833.3/UNR
.DELDT 11/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Thomas.Roerick@usda.gov,Tanner.sprague@usda.gov,Shea.koch@usda.gov