209
FNUS73 KUNR 092133
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Cope...Pine Ridge Agency
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
333 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 MDT on July 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...There is a thunderstorm approaching the burn area from
the southwest, which could contain hail and gusty winds. An even
stronger thunderstorm will then approach from the northwest, which
could contain larger hail and stronger winds. The burn area is in a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM. After these storms pass, there
should be a break for the rest of the evening, but then another chance
for showers and thunderstorms late tonight.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to
                    16 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
Mixing height.......5100 to 5600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph shifting to the north
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44  43
Weather cov.....SCT CHC
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCT CHC
CWR.............20  20
Temp............94  91
RH..............30  37
20 FT wind dir..S   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8
20 FT wind gust.16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...5.6 4.1
Transp wind dir.NW  N
Transp wind spd.14  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to
                    18 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 20 mph shifting to the south
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  36  31  26  28  29  31  33  35  37  48  59
Weather cov.....SCH SCH                             SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW                              RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH                             SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............88  84  79  75  72  70  68  67  66  66  65  63
RH..............42  48  56  64  66  63  65  68  73  73  78  78
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  17  18  18  16  18  18  18  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.16  20  22  24  23  22  20  18  18  17  16  15

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph early in the morning,
                    shifting to the northeast by noon and increasing
                    to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
CWR.................20 percent.
Mixing height.......4500 to 5000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northeast early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  72  74  76  78  80  81  78  75  72  72  71
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............64  66  69  73  76  77  80  83  83  83  84  85
RH..............81  78  73  66  60  56  49  46  46  44  43  41
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  W   W   N   E   NE  NE  NE  E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..9   8   9   8   7   9   10  12  13  13  13  14
20 FT wind gust.15  14  14  14  15  16  17  18  18  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.SE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  14  13  13  15  16  18  18  20  20  20  20

$$
Forecaster...KP
Requested by...Marjoe Janis
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517693.0/UNR
.DELDT 07/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL haidenjanssen@gmail.com,nmcmillin1130@gmail.com,marjoe.janis@bia.gov