524
FXUS63 KUNR 111047
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
447 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mild and dry through Thursday

-Deep low pressure will bring strong gusty winds to the region
 Friday with some rain and light snow

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Digging western CONUS trough will support downstream ridging,
supporting mild and dry weather through the week. However, this
system will eject into the central Plains Thur-Friday, supporting
deep low pressure. The consensus track of this storm will favor
strong gusty winds, some rain and light snow chances locally, but
the bulk (if not all) of the deformation snow will remain well
east of here. Cold front has settled through the region this
morning with NE winds and much cooler conds most places. WAA will
ensue today with temps responding well as highs will reach the 50s
and few 60s. Warmer Wed with 60s most places for highs. Upper
trough will push east Thurs and kick the lee side trough east,
with cyclogenesis ensuing on the Plains. Deep layer WSW flow will
allow very warm temps Thur with highs in the 60s and 70s most
places, a few 80s toward scentral SD via gusty SW winds. Cold
front will push through the region Friday with very strong ll NW
flow progged. Classic setup for strong winds as pressure rises, a
deepening sfc low, and CAA will all line up in the region. Would
not be surprised to see wind gusts over 70 mph at some locations
on the SD Plains, esp in the lee of the Black Hills. Upper trough
will also support some light rain and snow, with the best chances
over the NW third (esp the northern BH) where some Pac moisture
will advect into the region, and over scentral SD where gulf
moisture from the sfc low will interact with the developing
deformation zone. Any snow accums over the western 2/3 will
generally be light. There is also a small chance that Tripp County
could see some accums as well, depending on the sfc low track.
Cooler for the weekend, but dry conds with a warming trend
expected into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 445 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS are crossing the western SD plains and are
expected to dissipate by 16z. Otherwise VFR conditions will
continue through the forecast period. Breezy southerly winds are
expected today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 409 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Warm and dry conditions will persist through Thursday with
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Thursday will
see the warmest temperatures with 70s/low 80s likely across the
western SD plains. Will continue to monitor for any potential
headlines the next few days should winds/RH align. Regardless,
plan for a prolonged period of elevated fire weather conditions
across northeastern WY and western SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...JC