719
FXUS63 KUNR 061835
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1235 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend as we move towards the weekend.

- Active northwest flow will bring chances for showers/storms,
  mainly Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow over
the FA, as weak troughing sits over the Great Lakes region and
upper ridge builds over the far western CONUS. 18Z Surface
analysis has high pressure centered over eastern Wyoming this
afternoon. Satellite shows some low-top CU development over the
forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s and low 50s
over the region, with winds out of the northwest.

Upper ridge builds over the Rockies tonight and Thursday,
resulting in warmer temperatures for the area. Highs Thursday will
be in the upper 50s and 60s, while Friday will see widespread 70s.
Main concern for Thursday will be the potential for showers/storms
as a shortwave rides the northwest flow through the CWA.
The better forcing region for precipitation potential looks to be
from northeastern WY into the Black Hills and southwestern SD. Low
CAPE values (200-400 j/Kg) and some low eff shear will be enough
to spark some thunderstorms in the showery regions. Given the
forecast thermal profiles, not expecting any severe storm
potential, but some gusty winds 40-50mph may be possible near
showers/storms.

Dry conditions return Friday, but precipitation chances return
Saturday as a weak wave moves thorugh WY into SD/NE. Upper ridge
slides over the Rockies into the northern and central plains early
next week, resulting in continued warmer temperatures and mostly
dry conditions Sunday through middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1139 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will last through the forecast period.

Gusty winds will linger through the afternoon. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...GS