811
FXUS63 KUNR 042046
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
146 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow returns tonight into Friday, with another chance on
  Saturday into Sunday.

- Warmer and breezy conditions early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

An upper air analysis shows northwest flow continues over the
northern plains today, with a weak disturbance over eastern MT.
Surface chart depicts low pressure over western SD, with warm
frontal boundary now through the forecast area, towards central
SD. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 30s to low 40s, with
light to breezy westerly winds.

Clouds will increase this evening ahead of the next wave as it
drops down from eastern MT. Light precipitation arrives tonight,
late enough that it should remain as snow. Expect little to no
accumulations with this wave, however upslope over the northern
Black Hills will bring minor accumulations of 1-3 inches. Light
precipitation will taper off Friday morning, with dry conditions
expected the latter half of the day, and similar temperatures to
today. Another disturbance moves in late Friday and associated
cold front will drop down from MT/SD. Expect a slight decrease in
temperatures for Saturday, and another chance for light
precipitation during the day into Sunday morning. Some areas in
the western SD plains could see 1-2 inches, with the higher
elevation Black Hills perhaps seeing slightly higher amounts.
Unsettled pattern will bring more chances for light precipitation
early next week, however low-level warmer air moving in will bring
mild (but breezy) days for Monday and Tuesday, with highs for some
areas climbing into the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1040 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions continue this afternoon into early this evening.
Breezy northwest winds are expected north of Interstate 90. An
incoming system will bring light snow to northern and western
portions of the area around 03Z tonight. Increasing MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected, especially across northeast Wyoming, the
Black Hills, and through northwest South Dakota overnight into
Friday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...15