111
FXUS63 KUNR 230457
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
957 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures generally dry conditions continue
  early next week.

- Windy conditions possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows a shortwave
crossing the northern Plains, which is bringing extensive mid and
high clouds to the region. At the surface, high pressure ridge is
keeping quiet weather across the Dakotas. Warm air advection
continues today, with temperatures reaching the 40s to mid 50s. The
warmest temps are across the eastern foothills of the Black Hills
and also across south central SD. KUDX radar does show some returns
across northwest SD, but area webcams/obs show this is virga with
the dry boundary layer/15-20F degree dewpoint spreads. Skies will
clear out tonight as the wave pushes east. Lows will be in the 20s
to mid 30s. Warmer air will continue to advect into the region
Sunday, bringing very warm highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Continued
with the 50/50 blend of NBM/NBM 50th percentile for both lows and
highs through early next week. Models continue to show another wave
crossing the Dakotas on Monday, which will bring clouds and possibly
a few morning rain showers to the area. It will also bring gusty NW
winds, especially to northwest SD. Winds could reach advisory
criteria. The next wave is progged to cross the region on Tuesday,
bringing a cold front and light showers. Another windy day is
expected...possibly reaching advisory criteria. Cooler temps are
expected midweek but will be still above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 957 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...JC