Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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201
FXUS63 KUNR 070524
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1124 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold tonight with areas of frost.

- Warming trend the rest of the week with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Current upper air models show upper trough that has affected us
the last couple of days shifting eastward today with northwest
flow over the FA as upper ridge builds over the PAC NW. Surface
analysis shows high pressure shifting over the region. Winds are
currently light out of the south, with temperatures in the low 40s
to high 50s.

Surface high will allow for strong radiational cooling tonight.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will likely bring areas of
frost Tuesday morning. Frost warning continues over the
northeastern Wyoming plains, but have added some areas of the
western SD plains into a frost advisory, where lows dipping into
the 32 to 36 degree range will be possible Tuesday morning. Upper
ridge will shift over the Rockies on Tuesday and into the
northern/central plains by mid-week, as upper trough begins moves
over the PAC NW. This will usher in a warming trend along with dry
conditions at least through the work week.

Next notable disturbance looks to affect the area this weekend.
Upper ridge axis shifts east of the FA on Friday, setting up
southwest flow as the upper trough deepens over the western CONUS.
Models do diverge on timing and strength this far out, but we do
see a wave out ahead of the main trough could spark some
precipitation over the weekend as well as a shift back to cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1123 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for SDZ001-002-030-031-041-
     042-075-076-078.
WY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...13