485
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
523 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend will lead to temperatures climbing above seasonal
  normals for much of next week

- Expect dry conditions through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025

08Z upper analysis has broad cyclonic flow across the Northern
Plains with high amplitude ridge over the Northern Rockies. Skies
are currently clear over the area. At the surface, cool high
pressure dominates the Northern Plains. Temperatures are cool
across the forecast area, mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s at 2
Am. Winds are light.

Cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains will slowly diminish as
Northern Rockies ridge shifts east over the forecast area. After a
chilly start to the day, mild and dry conditions are expected with
temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s by late afternoon.
Clear and cool conditions are expected tonight, with lows
generally in the 40s. Some mid to upper 30s will be possible
across the Black Hills and favored areas across the plains.

Upper ridge will build across the area late this weekend into
early next week. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected
with temperatures rising above average by Sunday afternoon, and
persisting into early next week. Upper ridge peaks over the area
mid week, with strong western trof ejecting weak shortwave energy
in southwest upper flow across the area late in the week. This
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back to the area
for Wednesday into next weekend. Temperatures settle back to near
seasonal averages late week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 522 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025

VFR conditions and light winds expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for SDZ001-
     002-012>014-030>032-042>044-046-047-073-076>078.
WY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM MDT this morning for WYZ054>056-
     058>060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...15