138
FXUS63 KUNR 050343
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
943 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several shortwave troughs will bring chances of showers/storms
through Friday
- Warmer and drier weather this weekend into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A broad trough with embedded shortwaves sits over the
western 2/3 of the CONUS. One shortwave is helping to create some
showers and isolated thunderstorms over mainly the southern half
of the CWA. The surface map shows high pressure over the Dakotas,
with light southerly return flow around 10 kts. Under partly sunny
skies, temperatures are in the 50s and 60s.

Precipitation will dissipate this evening as the shortwave shifts
eastward. Lows will dip into the 40s on the plains, 30s in the Black
Hills.

The next shortwave, a bit stronger than today`s, pushes into the
region Thursday morning. There will be good 0-6 km shear, but
limited CAPE, and so severe weather is not expected. Under cloudy
skies, highs will be generally in the 60s. Light winds and plentiful
surface moisture could result in some fog Thursday night into Friday
morning, but left out of forecast for now.

Another shortwave moves in Friday, but most of its energy will be
concentrated in NE. A few isolated showers/storms will be possible,
but shear and buoyancy will be fairly weak.

Yet another shortwave is progged to move through northwest flow
early Saturday, as upper ridging builds to our west. However,
moisture appears to lag behind, and so mainly dry weather is
expected Saturday. The exception would be across central SD late
Saturday into Sunday, as the main Canadian low dives south into
MN, bringing cooler air with it. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s
and 80s, but Sunday will be in the 70s. Breezy northwest winds
can be expected both days this weekend.

As a transient upper ridge moves over the central states Monday,
warm and dry weather can be expected, with highs in the 70s and 80s.
However, another period of active weather will be possible towards
the middle of next week, as an upper trough and embedded shortwaves
develop over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 942 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025


A few showers are still ongoing tonight over the Black Hills and
western SD, and may cause localized MVFR conditions.

Additional rain and low clouds will arrive after 08-10z Thursday
morning, building from south to north with MVFR/IFR conditions
across NE WY and western SD into the day Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Dye