557
FXUS63 KUNR 231632
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
932 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the week.

- Windy conditions expected Monday and Tuesday, along with
  elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Current upper air models show mild upper ridge over the Rockies
moving into the northern/central plains. Surface models show low
pressure centered over eastern ND, with strong high pressure to
our west. Temperatures currently sit in the 20s to mid 30s, with
light west winds.

Ridge will allow for strong WAA over area, and much above normal
temperatures. Highs today should climb into the 50s and low 60s
across most of the forecast area, while the Black Hills can
expect mid-40s. NBM guidance continues to show a cold bias early
next week, so have continued with a blend of the NBM and NBM 50
percentile to tweak temps up slightly for today through Tuesday.
Deterministic models show a wave moving through the Dakotas mid-
day Monday, bringing strong winds into the region. Limited
moisture with this wave, however cannot rule out some light
sprinkles somewhere on Monday. Winds could reach advisory
criteria. The next wave is progged to cross the region on Tuesday,
bringing a cold front, light precipitation, and more gusty
winds...possibly reaching advisory criteria. Cold front associated
with this wave will drop temperatures a bit, however still above
normal temperatures expected through the week. Could see elevated
fire conditions for Monday/Tuesday, given snow melting over the
weekend, along with the warmer temperatures and strong winds on
those days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 931 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Johnson